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Arnold Palmer Invitational Each-Way Tips: Zalatoris to be king of the Hill

Dave Tindall
27 February 2023
4:00 min read

Will Zalatoris can claim victory at Bay Hill

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The PGA Tour stays in Florida and Will Zalatoris can make his mark at Bay Hill, says Dave Tindall...

20/1 Will Zalatoris is trending in the right direction after 4th at Riviera
50/1 Sahith Theegala looks ready to win soon
175/1 Sepp Straka is too big based on past Florida form

Main Bet: Will Zalatoris each-way @ 21.020/1

After a rather low-key Honda Classic won by 25/1 shot Chris Kirk, the big guns come out in force again for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.

The stellar field for the annual shootout at Arnie's place features 19 of the world's top 20 and it's no surprise to see Jon Rahm at just 13/2 following his three victories on the West Coast Swing: the Sentry TOC, The American Express and the Genesis Invitational.

Rahm in Florida may not quite be the same beast though. He's made just eight starts in the Sunshine state and not logged a top five. His one start at Bay Hill resulted in tied 17th last year.

Scottie Scheffler looks to have every chance of defending after he did just that in Phoenix two starts ago and 10/1 is okay given the amount he wins.

But my bet from the top end of the market is World No.7 Will Zalatoris at 20/1.

Scheffler ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Approach when winning at Bay Hill 12 months ago while 2020 champion Tyrrell Hatton was 2nd in that category.

Corey Conners was 1st for SG: Approach in 2021 and finished third.

At 89th in SGA this season, Zalatoris perhaps doesn't leap off the page but there was a real uptick in his performance in that regard at Riviera last time.

Zalatoris ranked 10th for SG: Approach at the Genesis Invitational, hitting a series of quality iron shots, especially in round four where he closed with a 64 to bank fourth place.

History says strong iron play and putting make the difference for Zalatoris so it's pleasing to see that he's recorded positive SG: Putting figures in all four of his starts since the calendar flipped to 2023.

Tracing his Florida history, his three starts there on the Korn Ferry Tour produced finishes of 26-6-3. He's also never finished worse than 38th in five Florida starts on the PGA Tour.

The best of those was a 10th place at Bay Hill on debut in 2021 while he was fifth after 18 holes and 12th through 54 before slipping to 38th here last year.

Zalatoris has some cool history with this event as he was on an Arnold Palmer scholarship at Wake Forest, the college where Arnie went too.

"Unfortunately, I never met him, but I got a letter from him when I signed with Wake Forest. So the personal connection still means a lot to me," said Zalatoris last year.

Back Will Zalatoris each-way @

21.0

Scheffler won this event with just 5-under last year while 4-under saw Hatton triumph in 2020.

In other words, the modern Bay Hill - a 7,466-yard par 72 with larger than average TifEagle Bermudagrass greens - is a real beast and that's surely ideal for Zalatoris who has shown his liking for the toughest courses with his brilliant record in the majors. A reminder, he's been runner-up in the Masters, the US Open and the PGA Championship in the last few years.

Zalatoris called his fourth at Riviera "a big step in the right direction" and explained that coach, Troy Denton, who was on site, had spotted a set-up issue - a result of the back injury that caused him to miss the final four months of last season.

"It's nice to see some really good iron play, which has kind of been the one thing that it's obviously what I'm known for, but I've been just very average," he said at Riviera.

If it's as sharp here, he looks a big contender for the title.

Next Best: Sahith Theegala each-way @ 51.050/1

Here's a decent quiz question. Who is the only player, apart from Jon Rahm, to have five top 10s on the PGA Tour this season?

The answer, it may surprise you, is Sahith Theegala.

In fact, top 10s doesn't do it justice as Theegala's strong finishes have all actually been top sixes.

Theegala's big 2022/23 results in order: 6th Fortinet Championship, 5th Zozo Championship, 2nd RSM Classic, 4th Farmers Insurance Open, 6th Genesis Invitational.

During that run he also won the QBE Shootout pairs event with Tom Hoge which may count for nothing but, then again, may count for something given that it was a win (something he hasn't achieved yet in solo play) and took place in Florida.

Back Sahith Theegala each-way @

51.0

What stopped Theegala getting closer to the 'W' on the West Coast Swing was his putting.

He scraped into positive SGP numbers at both Torrey Pines and Riviera although, between those California events, he did rank 11th for SG: Putting at TPC Scottsdale where, take note, the greens are the same as this week: TifEagle Bermuda.

Theegala was also 4th for SG: Putting at Sea Island, another venue with TifEagle, so the signs look promising that he can putt well here.

The downside is that he missed the cut at Bay Hill last year when shooting 73-79. However, that was part of a 48-MC-MC run that followed his close brush with victory at the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Was he suffering some mental letdown?

If strong approach play is the requirement here then Theegala has the desired numbers behind him after ranking 4th in SG: Approach at both the Farmers and the Genesis.

A seventh at the Valspar on his last Florida start can be viewed as another positive.

At Torrey Pines last month, the hugely likable 25-year-old said: "Every week I feel like I'm learning something. Even if the golf gets a little worse that week, I feel like I'm making progress as a whole.

"I'm just going to try and stick to that. The goal is just to put myself in more positions like these, that's more my goal than to try and chase a victory or anything."

Let's hope it comes to him here. Take the 50/1.

Final Bet: Sepp Straka each-way @ 176.0175/1

You'll find plenty of Open winners or Claret Jug contenders on both lists of champions at The Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

So, by that logic, if you have what it takes to play well at PGA National, you can also thrive at fellow Florida layout Bay Hill.

If that's the case, the 175/1 for Sepp Straka this week is a massive price.

Straka is just coming off a tied fifth place at the Honda, a tournament he'd won 12 months earlier.

Also second at the Sanderson Farms Championship in the opening event of the season, the Austrian can clearly play - even if he does miss a chunky amount of cuts.

Talking of which, let's address the elephant in the room: his Bay Hill record of MC-MC-MC.

It takes some explaining away but let's try. Last year, the early exit was kind of inevitable after the sheer magnitude of the previous week when he'd become a PGA Tour winner for the first time by snatching victory at the Honda.

The other two? He just wasn't as good a player in 2020 and 2021.

Back Sepp Straka each-way @

176.0

Third at the Web.com Tour Championship in 2018, Straka's last four starts in Florida include a win and a fifth at the Honda along with a top 10 in The Players Championship. That's impressive by anyone's standards.

Straka's approach play and putting tend to decide whether it's going to be a good week or a poor one.

He ranked 2nd for SG: Approach at PGA National last week and the 29-year-old's putting stats have been above the tour average over his last 20 rounds.

Obviously, this is a class field but finishing ninth at Sawgrass shows he can get in amongst it in elite company in Florida so, in the hope that he puts past Bay Hill course behind him, let's play Straka - now the World No.29 - at 175/1.

Staked: £600
Returned: £316.5
P/L: -£283.5

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

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