Golf Bets

Find Me a 100 Winner: Chappell can contend again at 119/1

Golfer Kevin Chappell
Kevin Chappell - fancied to contend in Puerto Rico

The PGA Tour pitches up in Florida and Puerto Rico this week for two vastly different events and Steve Rawlings has picked out some outsiders to trade at both events...


The field is so deep at the Arnold Palmer Invitational that there are some very good players, with great credentials, trading at huge odds and it's tempting to back a number of them.

Last year's runner-up Billy Horschel, who's the 20th best player on the planet according to the Official World Rankings, is currently trading at 220.0219/1, having been matched at a high of 300.0299/1.

It's difficult to make a case for laying last week's winner, Chris Kirk, at 140.0139/1, given he's finished eighth and fifth here in each of the last two years. Dave Tindall fancies him to start nicely tomorrow and Kirk will shorten in the outright market considerably if he does hit the ground running.

Bay Hill regular, Tommy Fleetwood, is also a tempting price at 100.099/1 and a case can even be made for massive outsider Ryan Brehm, who played nicely last week in the Honda Classic and who hacked up in the Puerto Rico Open last year.

But given longshots don't have a strong record in the event, I'm going to plump for just one outsider in the event - one of Dave Tindall's each-way fancies, Sepp Straka.

Is Sepp set for another fine finish in Florida?

The fact that Straka has missed the cut here three times on his only previous three appearances is an obvious negative, but he would have learnt plenty on each occasion. And as Dave points out, he's a better player now, and last year's weekend off can be readily forgiven.

Just days earlier he'd become the first Austrian to win on the PGA Tour and his fifth placed finish when defending his Honda Classic title last week was eye-catching.

Sepp Straka in the rain at the Honda.jpg

Straka ranked fourth for Driving Accuracy last week so his long game was in good order but it was his approach play that really impressed.

He ranked first for Greens In Regulation and second for Strokes Gained on Approach and a repeat of that tee-to-green game will see him contend.

Back 1u Sepp Straka @ 440.0439/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Chappell can contend again

The difference between this week's two PGA Tour events couldn't be starker.

We can back the world number 20, Horschel, at 220.0219/1 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, whereas the world number 330, Sam Stevens, heads the market at the Puerto Rico Open, despite missing the cut at the Honda last week.

The Arnold Palmer, which I've previewed, is going to be a great spectacle but the Puerto Rico Open is the event most likely to produce a triple-figure priced winner.

As highlighted in the preview, outsiders and veterans have a great record in the event so I've picked out two players with plenty of experience, starting with 36-year-old Californian - Kevin Chappell.

The 2017 Texas Open winner has lost his way since finishing sixth in the Open Championship in 2018 and in three previous visits here he's never made it through to the weekend. But he caught the eye last week in the Honda with three rounds in the 60s after an opening 72 to finish in a tie for 29th.

He needs to build on that to win but, with two top-seven finishes in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in 2016 and 2018, he'll feel that he should be operating at a higher grade in Florida this week and that might just inspire him.

Back 2u Kevin Chappell @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Don't dismiss Diaz

I intended to put up William McGirt, who finished alongside Chappell in the Honda, thanks to rounds of 66 on Friday and 67 on Saturday, but having got matched at 150.0149/1, his price has contracted considerably. So my only other pick is 36-year-old Mexican, Roberto Diaz.

Roberto Diaz.jpg

Although he missed the cut last time out, Diaz was eighth in the Panama Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in his penultimate start, so he has a bit of recent form to boast, and he has form at the course that correlates best with this one too.

Diaz finished second at the Corales Puntacana Championship when it was still a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2016. That suggests this venue should suit his eye and it clearly does because he finished 10th here on his only previous visit in 2019, having sat tied for the lead at halfway.

Back 2u Roberto Diaz @ 140.0139/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended Bets

Back 1u Sepp Straka @ 440.0439/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 2u Kevin Chappell @ 120.0119/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 2u Roberto Diaz @ 140.0139/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4

STEVE'S 2023 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 38.5 units Returned: 40 units P/L: +1.5 units

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