Dave Tindall's World Cup Trends - How it works...
After the trends feature branched out with its Golden Boot preview, now it's time for the really big question - who wins the World Cup?
It's taken me a while to think up the categories and obviously this took a bit of research.
With the World Cup taking place only every four years, we have to go back to the 1986 finals in Mexico (I'm still unsure how Gary Lineker didn't convert that second John Barnes cross) to get 10 editions' worth.
But that data has now been analysed so let's blow the whistle and get this preview underway.
The nine trends categories are: Squad Age, ELO Ranking, Geography, World Cup Best, Recent Finalist, Recent Big Tournament Form, Defending Champion, Manager Nationality, Odds
Squad Age - History suggests sweet spot
Do you need experience? Do younger legs work best?
Let's use the opening category to remind ourselves how the trends points scoring system works. The key is frequency and I'll award points based on how often each age group won across the last 10 editions of the World Cup.
So, as six of those last 10 winners had an average squad age between 26 and 28, any team whose squad average falls in that bracket gets six points.
Three winners had an average squad age between 25 and 26 while the Italians of 2006 were the only champions who averaged over 28.
Those with squads averaging over 28 this time include Brazil, Argentina and Colombia so they only score 1pt each.
Ivory Coast have the youngest squad but at 25.35 they score 3pts.
Here's the allocation.
Average squad age 26-28 = 6pts
Average squad age 25-26 = 3pts
Average squad age over 28 = 1pt
Average squad age under 25 = 0pts
ELO Ranking - Strongest teams dominate
The FIFA World Rankings only go back to 1993 which was a problem at first.
But then I discovered the ELO rankings. These aren't based on the thoughts of Jeff Lynne (niche joke) but are a dynamic, points-based system used to calculate the relative strength of national teams.
Seven of the last 10 winners were in the top five of the ELO rankings pre-tournament.
The other three were ranked from 6th to 10th so the points system is fairly easy here.
That obviously means no team outside the top 10 of the ELO has won in the study period.
Current top five, who all score 7pts? Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil.
Portugal, Colombia, Netherlands, Ecuador and Germany rank 6-10 and score 3pts each.
1-5 in ELO Rankings = 7pts
6-10 in ELO Rankings = 3pts
11th or higher in ELO Ranking = 0pts
Geography - It counts!
For a huge chunk of World Cup history, the Brazil squad of 1958 (in Sweden) were the only team to win outside their home continent.
That was when the tournament pinged between Europe and the Americas - that sequence finally ending in 2002 when Japan and South Korea co-hosted.
With FIFA keen to send the tournament around the globe, South Africa and Qatar have also staged the World Cup in recent times. We could class those 2002, 2010 and 2022 venues as neutral or non-Europe.
We need to widen the study period here to get the last 10 times the World Cup was played in the Americas/other non-European locations.
The trend is strong as we find that teams from South America have won eight of the last 10 World Cups held outside Europe. Germany bucked it in Brazil in 2014 but history shows that Europeans are dominant on home European soil but vulnerable elsewhere, especially in the Americas.
Teams from South America = 8pts
Teams from Europe = 2pts
Non South American/European teams = 0pts
World Cup Best - Past success a strong pointer
A simple category this one. Looking at the last 10 winners, what was their previous best performance at a World Cup?
Unlike the Euros which has seen shock wins for Denmark (1992) and Greece (2004), the World Cup has been a bit of a closed shop with the same teams winning.
In fact, of the last 10 champions, only France (1998) and Spain (2010) hadn't lifted the trophy before
Has won the World Cup = 8pts
Has reached a semi-final or quarter-final = 2pts
Never made last eight = 0pts
Recent Finalist - Win or near miss counts
The previous stat is rooted in belief. The knowledge that 'we know we can go all the way'.
But surely that confidence diminishes as time goes by. England won the World Cup 60 years ago so it's hard to think they lean on that too much.
Another guide is how recently each champion had won it or made the final and a pattern emerges as seven of the last 10 World Cup winners had contested one of the previous three finals. Playing in the ultimate game in the not too distant past creates a feeling that getting there again and winning it is very possible.
Argentina, the 2022 winners, had reached the 2014 final two World Cups earlier.
Of the leading teams, Spain, England and Brazil haven't taken part in any of the last three finals so they take a hit.
Contested one of the previous three finals = 7pts
Not contested one of the previous three finals = 3pts
Recent Big Tournament Form - Clues to be found in regional championships
One big reason attributed to Argentina's 2022 World Cup triumph was that they'd won the Copa America two years earlier.
So how did the last 10 winners perform in their most recent continental championship before going on to take World Cup glory?
Without necessarily winning, most did well with six of the 10 getting to a least a semi-final. Two made the quarters while two actually went out in the group stage (Argentina in 1986 and Italy in 2006).
Spain, England, France and the Netherlands all made the last four of the last Euros while Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay and Canada were the four semi-finalists at the most recent Copa America. Note the absence of Brazil.
Senegal, Morocco, Egypt and Nigeria also score 6pts for making the last four of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.
Semis or better in most recent continental champs = 6pts
Quarter-final exit in most recent cont champs = 2pts
Didn'te make quarters in most recent cont champs = 2pts
Defending champions - Back-to-back winners a rarity
One remarkable stat is that the 1998, 2010, 2014 and 2018 winners - that's France, Italy, Spain and Germany - all went out in the group stage when defending the crown.
France (2018) and Brazil (1994) made spirited defences when losing in the final but the bottom line is that none of the last 10 defending champions have retained the title. You'd have to go back to Brazil in 1962 to find the last team to do it.
Sorry Argentina, that burden of history knocks you here.
Defending champion = 0pts
Not defending champion = 10pts
Manager Nationality - History against Tuchel
Gareth Southgate got England to the semis but the England hierarchy have often believed that a foreign manager would give them the best chance of lifting the trophy again.
Hence the appointment of Germany's Thomas Tuchel after previous stints from Sven-Goran Eriksson (2002 and 2006) and Fabio Capello (2010) in charge of the Three Lions.
But Tuchel lifting the World Cup with England, or Brazil hoisting the silverware with Italian Carlo Ancelotti would be breaking new ground as no team has ever won the World Cup with a foreign manager.
You'd expect that to change one day but, for now, it's one of the clearest trends we have.
Managed by domestic boss = 10pts
Managed by foreign boss = 0pts
Odds - Fancied teams thrive
Denmark and Greece were both big outsiders when winning the Euros but the market has proved a much more accurate guide in the World Cup.
Italy were as big as 18/1 when winning in 1982 but in our study period (1986 to 2022) no champion has been priced over 10/1.
That hurts Germany (12s) and the Netherlands (14s) but is good news for France, Spain, England, Brazil, Portugal and Argentina.
Priced at 10/1 or under = 10pts
Priced over 10/1 = 0pts
The Top Points Scorers
The scores are in...
66 France
62 Spain
57 Argentina
52 England
49 Brazil
48 Germany
42 Netherlands
39 Croatia
38 Portugal
37 Senegal/South Korea
It's France!
The winners from 1998 and 2018, and the beaten finalists from 2022, just edge in front of Spain.
As those two are the 9/25.50 joint-favourites, it makes sense.
France have a good squad age (26.58), are in the top five (third) in the ELO rankings and reached the semis of the last Euros.
They score the most possible points in every category apart from geography.
France edge in front due to a better recent World Cup record than Spain. The Spanish won in 2010 but have been poor since, failing to get beyond the last 16 in each of the last three editions.
Back France to win
If France and Spain both top their groups, they'd meet in the semi-finals so I'll switch to the opposite side of the draw for a second bet.
If - and it has be considered an 'if' - England and Argentina both top their groups, they'd meet in the other last-four clash.
Argentina lose points for being the defending champions and are hit for having an ageing squad (28.62 makes them 40th out of 48 in the average squad age charts).
But they rack up the points in every other category and just nudge in front of England in the final standings.
We can back them at 10s or, how about this... go for the France-Argentina final at 25s.
Yes, that's a repeat of the last one but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
Argentina beat West Germany in a thrilling 1986 final before the Germans got revenge four years later in a bad-tempered re-run in 1990.
Back France-Argentina final