Dave Tindall's World Cup Trends - How it works...
First, there were the the 10-year golf trends.
Then we branched out to the World snooker trends and hit a 28/129.00 winner.
Now it's time to take an even bigger leap with a delve into World Cup football trends.
First, we look at the Golden Boot and 10 World Cups' worth takes us back to 1986.
There were actually 11 winners in that period from 1986 to 2022 as the award was shared in 1994.
Golden Boot winners:
2022 Kylian Mbappe (France) - 8
2018 Harry Kane (England) - 6
2014 James Rodriguez (Colombia) - 6
2010 Thomas Muller (Germany) - 5
2006 Miroslav Klose (Germany) - 5
2022 Ronaldo (Brazil) - 8
1998 Davor Suker (Croatia) - 6
1994 Hristo Stoichov (Bulgaria), Oleg Salenko (Russia) - 6
1990 Salvatore Schillaci (Italy) - 6
1986 Gary Lineker (England) - 6
So what characteristics can we look at to try and find some common themes among this elite bunch of marksmen?
The trends categories I've come up with are: Age, Country, Club, International Appearances, International Goals, Goals Per Cap, Club Goals That Season, Penalty Taker
Age - Younger players fare best
Is netting goals in batches at a World Cup something for the wily, proven scorer or more a young man's game given the intensity of so many matches in a small space of time?
Let's use the opening category to explain how the trends points scoring system works. The key is frequency and I'll award points based on the age of the Golden Boot winner across the last 10 editions of the World Cup. Remember, there are 11 of them.
Kylian Mbappe was 23 when top scoring in Qatar and that added to a fairly strong trend as eight of the 11 Golden Boot winners were between 20 and 25. That includes each of the last four.
So any player in that age bracket going into this World Cup scores 8pts, those aged 26-30 score 3pts and anyone over 30 scores zero. Sorry Messi. Sorry Ronaldo. Sorry Harry Kane.
The three players in that 26-30 bracket were Hristo Stoichkov (28), Davor Suker (30) and Miroslav Klose (28).
Nothing for teenagers either as the youngest winner was 20-year-old Thomas Muller in 2010.
Here's the allocation.
Aged 20-25 = 8pts
Aged 26-30 = 3pts
Aged Over 30 or Under 20 = 0pts
Country - European strikers dominate
Brazil legend Ronaldo top scored with eight goals in Japan/Korea in 2022 while Colombia's James Rodriguez headed the charts with six on Brazilian soil in 2014.
But all the other top scorers in the study period played for European nations.
Even though Maradona was the standout player in Argentina's 1986 triumph, Gary Lineker took home the Golden Boot that year.
Messi has never top scored either.
Plays for European country = 9pts
Plays for South American country = 2pts
Players for Any Other country = 0pts
Club - Don't look beyond Europe
It's nice to think that a surprise player at a South American or African club could surprise us.
But it just doesn't happen.
Oleg Salenko (who shared the Golden Boot in 1994 after scoring five times in one match) could possibly have been plying his trade somewhere around the world but he was actually in Spain with Logrones.
In short - and this is no surprise - all the 11 Golden Boot winners from 1986 to 2022 played for a European club team.
Could a Saudi-based player make an impact this time to ruin the sequence? We shall see.
Plays club football in Europe = 11pts
Plays club football outside of Europe = 0pts
International Appearances - Established players have edge
Salvatore Schillaci came out of nowhere to top score on home soil for Italy in 1990. The striker had just a single cap going into the tournament.
But, in general, Golden Boot winners have established themselves at international level.
Six of the 11 Golden Boot winners had won over 30 caps and that's the strongest bucket.
Three had won between 10 and 30 - including Kane with 24 ahead of the 2018 World Cup - while another three had played for their country under 10 times.
Thomas Muller had featured just twice for Germany.
Over 30 caps for country = 6pts
10 to 29 caps for country = 3pts
Under 10 caps for country = 3pts
International Goals - Proven scorers best
Gary Lineker had only scored six times for England before doubling his tally with six more at Mexico 86.
Thomas Muller and Salvatore Schillachi had never even scored an international goal before winning the Golden Boot.
That gives hope for those backing a virtual newbie.
But it's no surprise that proven goalscorers do best in this category. Six of the 11 had scored over 12 times for their country, while Ronaldo (37 for Brazil) and Davor Suker (31 for Croatia) had both already blasted over 30 goals for their national teams before landing the award.
Scored over 12 international goals = 6pts
Scored between 5 and 11 international goals = 2pts
Scored under 5 international goals = 3pts
Goals Per Cap - Strike-rate is key
Forwards are judged on strike-rate so that needs to be reflected too rather than just totting up their number of appearances and total goals.
Davor Suker was knocking them in at a hugely impressive rate for Croatia ahead of the 1998 World Cup, averaging 0.86 goals per game.
Ronaldo and Harry Kane both averaged better than one in two while Lineker, Klose and Mbappe all had good strike-rates at international level despite being at different stages of their careers.
Overall, six of the 11 Golden Boot winners went into the tournament averaging better than 0.4 goals per game for their country.
A few who don't hit that mark - Lamine Yamal, Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham.
Goals per cap over 0.4 = 6pts
Goals per cap from 0.2 to 0.39 = 3pts
Goals per cap under 0.2 = 2pts
Club Goals That Season - Most come in hot
While Lineker had only scored six goals for England ahead of Mexico 86, he went to that tournament on the back of a brilliant season for Everton having netted 40 times.
Kane had blasted 41 goals for Spurs going into the 2018 World Cup while Italia 90 surprise package, Schillachi, had won his place in the squad after netting 21 times for Juventus in the 1989/90 campaign.
Overall, seven of the 11 Golden Boot winners had scored 19 or more times for their clubs that season ahead of the tournament.
Mbappe had reached 19 too even though Qatar 2022 came halfway through the campaign.
The only player to have scored under 10 at club level that season was Ronaldo, who was coming back from a long-term injury at Inter.
Scored 19 or more goals for their club this season = 7pts
Scored 10-19 goals for their club this season = 3pts
Scored under 10 goals for their club this season = 1pt
Penalty taker - Spot-kicks give an edge
Several Golden Boot winners have boosted their tallies with goals from the spot.
Two of Kylian Mbappe's eight goals in Qatar were penalties (both in the final) while spot-kicks played a huge part in Harry Kane's 2018 Golden Boot triumph as he converted three in England's run to the semis.
Messi, who was runner-up in this market in 2022 with seven (usually a Golden Boot-winning amount), scored four penalties.
Mbappe, Kane and Messi were their team's designated penalty taker and, although it's hard to be 100% sure when going back in time, I make it seven of the 11 Golden Boot winners would have been first up had the referee pointed to the spot.
I've not included Schillaci. Although he scored from the spot, that was due to Roberto Baggio stepping aside to help his teammate try and win the 1990 Golden Boot. It worked.
Likely first-choice penalty taker = 7pts
Not likely first-choice penalty taker = 4pts
The Top Points Scorers
The scores are in...
59 Erling Haaland (Norway)
54 Kylian Mbappe (France)
54 Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
54 Viktor Gyokeres (Sweden)
51 Hary Kane (England)
51 Ferran Torres (Spain)
48 Bukayo Saka (England)
47 Michael Olise (France)
46 Lamine Yamal (Spain)
46 Jamal Musiala (Germany)
...and the Golden Boot bets!
It's Haaland!
The Manchester City striker is the right age (25) and has an outstanding scoring record for both club and country.
Amazingly, he averages more than a goal per game for Norway after firing home 16 times in qualification.
Add in his fantastic record for Manchester City and the fact that he's a penalty taker and he tops the trends standings.
Back the Striking Viking at 12s.
Back Erling Haaland each-way
I won't go into bat with Haaland alone - especially as Norway have a tough group: France, Senegal and Iraq. That said a goal each against the first two before a brace again Iraq isn't out of the question.
Mbappe and Kane are short enough and no-one has ever won the Golden Boot twice which perhaps should have been a trend.
I'll pass those two over and instead back Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal, who finishes joint-second in the trends.
The Spaniard, who got the winner against England in the final of Euro 2024, has been a late bloomer at international level.
And, after a brilliant burst of scoring, the 29-year-old has plundered 11 goals in his last 10 internationals.
With six assists in that hotstreak, Oyarzabal has 17 goal contributions in the last 10 matches. No wonder he's firmly established himself as the horns of the Spanish bull.
He looks to be first-choice penalty taker too so with Spain having one of the easier groups (Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde), he could fill his boots.
With his team favourites to lift the trophy, the Real Sociedad striker could also play the maximum number of games (8).
Back Mikel Oyarzabal each-way
Those who watched him struggle in the Champions League final won't be rushing out to back Viktor Gyokeres.
But the trends love him - he ranks joint-second - and 20 goals in 33 matches at international level is excellent. The latest came in a 2-2 draw with Greece on Thursday night.
A tally of 21 goals in his debut season for Arsenal is also noteworthy even if he's not easy on the eye but Gyokeres takes a great penalty (scored 40 out of 44 in his career) and is Sweden's first-choice for spot-kicks.
Sweden have a tough group (Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia) but Graham Potter has made a real impact since taking over as boss and let's not forget that eight of the 12 third-placed teams in each group also make it to the last 32.
Gyokeres is certainly an interesting outsider at huge odds and his price seems based more on perception than his actual international record.
Four goals has been enough to be placed (1/4 Odds, 4 Places in this market) in eight of the last 10 World Cups and, although it could be more this time given the expanded format, Gyokeres's record for Sweden suggests he could hit the required numbers.
Back Viktor Gyokeres each-way