Spain v Austria Tip - Back La Roja to come out on top
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Thursday, 20:00
Live on BBC1
Despite Spain's toothless nature, they still come into the round of 32 without having conceded a goal. As the stat suggests, they are defensively excellent, limiting their opposition to just 4.7 shots per-game - the fewest in the tournament. That means they've conceded just 0.5 expected goals - only 0.17 per-game.
This platform provides them with an excellent chance to win football matches. But there is the issue. They looked poor going forward in the opening game without the pace of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the wings but even in the following games Yamal has not looked totally fit. And the concern here is Spain have only scored once without him on the pitch. Williams has only managed 46 minutes in total.
Austria were dealt a blow before the tournament with the injury to attacker Christoph Baumgartner off the back of a 25 goal involvement season for RB Leipzig. Their attack is being lead by 37 year-old Marko Arnautovic who can't manage more than 45 minutes, whilst there is also concern over Real Madrid centre-back David Alaba who hasn't managed to complete a full game either. In their 2-0 defeat to Argentina, Austria managed just six shots and 0.53 xG.
This match is all in Spain's hands, the only question is whether they can manage to score at least one to get the victory.
Back Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals
Portugal v Croatia Tip - Back the Selecao to get the victory
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Friday, 00:00
Live on BBC1
Zlatko Dalić has a terrific World Cup record for Croatia having lead them to third place in 2022 after finishing unners-up in Russia in 2018. Despite finishing second in the group - nothing negative given England won it - it feels like this might be the end of the road for this group of players. Luka Modric is now 40 years-old and has looked sluggish at times, giving a penalty away in the opening game for example. Utility man Ivan Perisic has operated across all of their left-hand side but has he still got the lung capacity at 37? Mateo Kovacic is 32 and he has had an injury-hit season, as has star defender Josko Gvardiol. It just seems like they have a little less control of games. Indeed their possession is down on the last World Cup and that's despite being in a group with defensive sides Panama and Ghana.
Ultimately the kicker here is that they are giving up good chances with 27 teams having a better xG against record. And Portugal have been controlling games with the fifth highest possession in the tournament at 62.4% and having 50% more shots per-game than Croatia (12.3 v 8.0). There is just enough juice in Portugal's price in a game they should have more of the ball and more of the chances.
Back Portugal
Switzerland v Algeria Tip - Back the Swiss to make the R16
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Friday, 04:00
Live on BBC1
The Vladimir Petkovic derby. Algeria boss Petkovic was in-charge of Switzerland for seven years from 2014 to 2021 where he took the side to the knockout stages of a major tournament on every occasion including in his final one at EURO 2020 where the Swiss famously knocked out France on penalties in the round of 16 before losing on penalties to Spain in the quarter-finals.
There may be an element of regret for Petkovic as he left to join Bordeaux but lasted just six months, sacked with the team in the relegation zone. Murat Yakin has continued Petkovic's good work by famously beating defending champions Italy 2-0 at EURO 2024 before pushing runners-up England all the way in losing in a penalty shoot-out in the quarter-finals.
Switzerland arrive here unbeaten and it's always felt they've had control over their destiny. Arguably too comfortable in their opening game versus Qatar where they gave away a last minute equaliser, they eventually beat Bosnia 4-1 and silenced the crowd in Vanvouver to ensure top spot with a victory over hosts Canada.
Ignoring Algeria's 'dodgy draw' with Austria, they have mainly toiled in their matches with a defeat to Argentina and then perhaps a fortuitous comeback win over Jordan, twice taking advantage from corners. It feels to me that the difference in quality is portrayed by both sides' xG differential (xG for - xG against). Switzerland's is 3.90 - the tenth best - whereas Algeria's is only 0.5 - the 24th best (average 1.30 versus 0.17).
The odds suggest Switzerland are only 0.5 goals better than Algeria and I think that means we can head to the Betfair Exchange to back the Swiss -0.25 on the Asian Handicap. This bet gives us the security of half our stak returned if the match finishes in a draw.
Back Switzerland -0.25
Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in a treble at 11/26.50
With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup let's back my best bets in a treble on the Betfair Sportsbook.
Back Spain and Under 3.5 goals, Portugal win and Switzerland win