Leg 1 - Greece v Germany: Greece Double Chance @ 9/101.90
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Sunday 4 October, 19:45
I really like this price for Greece to avoid defeat against a Germany side who have only managed to win one of their three games under Jurgen Klopp so far.
Greece beat Germany 1-0 when the nations met in Augsburg last week, they did get a bit lucky but Germany didn't do enough to win the game and there ended up being very little between the two in terms of xG (1.27-0.72) despite Germany having double the number of shots as Greece.
Greece have avoided defeat in all three of their games in this Nations League group so far, which is really impressive considering that they're competing alongside Germany and Netherlands in this group, as well as Serbia - who are by far the weakest side.
Greece have also scored in all three of their games so far, netting 2+ goals in two of these games. I think they have enough momentum to cause a bit of an upset again, and Germany still clearly have a lot of work to do to become a consistent side under Klopp.
Leg 2 - Portugal v Norway: Both Teams to Score @ 1/21.50
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Sunday 4 October, 19:45
I was happy to lay the Portugal clean sheet ahead of their clash with Denmark on Thursday night, siding with both teams to score, and after they conceded two (winning 4-2), the first of which came after 23 minutes, I'm going in again when they host a very competitive Norway.
In Portugal's 2-1 win in Norway last week, the scoreline really flattered them.
This bet was in after 51 minutes, Norway had 62% possession, won the xG battle 2.52-1.04 and the shot count 22-12.
Portugal are top of this group with nine points from nine, but it's not been convincing and Norway will be desperate to get back on track after losing in Wales in midweek - a match that was heavily impacted by a 46th minute red card.
Leg 3 - Wales v Denmark: Both Teams to Score @ 8/131.61
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Sunday 4 October, 19:45
Back-to-back home games suits Wales here, building some confidence with an important win over Norway on Thursday night (2-1).
Denmark lost 4-2 at home to Portugal that same evening, and conceded 2.25 xG and 10 shots on target on their home patch.
Wales edged the first half in Denmark last week, losing 2-0, and the Danes have conceded in six of their last eight competitive outings - clean sheets are not a regular occurrence.
In the last year they've conceded twice to Belarus, four times to Scotland, twice to Czechia, with their only shutouts coming against North Macedonia and Wales.
It'd be a surprise to see them keep another one in Wales, the latter will likely move into the qualification spots with a win.
Leg 4 - Rep of Ireland v Israel: Rep of Ireland to Win @ 11/102.11
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Sunday 4 October, 19:45
Ireland raced into a 3-0 lead inside just 25 minutes when these nations faced off last week, and I think this is a nice price to back Ireland to collect all three points against Israel again.
Ireland have had a mixed Nations League campaign so far, following up their 3-0 win over Israel with a 2-2 draw against Austria at home. That result looks decent on paper, but Ireland will feel as though they should have got more from the game as they held a 2-0 lead early on.
Israel are yet to win a game in the Nations League, conceding 3+ goals in both of their matches against Austria and Ireland. They did manage to keep Kosovo quiet last time out, but still conceded 18 shots and four shots on target while offering very little attacking threat themselves.
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