Republic of Ireland v Armenia, Tuesday September 27, 19:45
Live On RTE/Premier Sports
No margin for Irish error
Before the draw for the UEFA Nations League took place, Stephen Kenny spoke about how Ireland should be aspiring to win their group.
The fact that Tuesday's concluding game with Armenia is technically a relegation battle reflects that results have failed to meet expectations.
Performances have improved considerably since a pair of opening defeats, including a horror show in Yerevan, so there's arguably less pressure on Kenny going into this match than there was for the June win over the Scots.
But the mood will change dramatically if Ireland fail to win, even if a draw is a sufficient to avoid the drop.
There's almost a presumption that Ireland will do the business given their upturn in fortunes and the odds reflect that, yet that means the backlash will be spectacular if they fall short.
Dropped points against Luxembourg, Azerbaijan and Armenia are the biggest sticks to beat Kenny with.
Ireland have performed reasonably well against stronger opponents and there has been a measured response to a 2-1 loss in Scotland, an entertaining affair that might have swung in either direction before Ryan Christie converted a late spot kick.
There comes a point, though, when winning needs to become a habit and that's why Dublin fans will anticipate an efficient showing to drain any drama from the occasion.
Armenian woes
If Kenny has been bothered by some stick from critics, he's having it easy compared to his opposite number Joaquín Caparrós.
The Spaniard is on his way out shortly but after a 5-0 loss at home to a second string Ukraine on Saturday, local journalists walked out of the press conference because he was refusing to resign on the spot.
There's a little bit of a pattern running through Armenian competitive campaigns. After starting well, they tail off dramatically when they fall out of contention. In their World Cup group in 2021, they kicked off with three wins but were losing 5-0 at home to North Macedonia by the end of it.
Ireland met a focused Armenia side in June, but they're unlikely to encounter the same level of resistance for the return. It was too easy for Ukraine on Saturday.
The start is all important, though. Armenia sat off Ireland in the first game and allowed them to have the ball. With Ireland lethargic and short of invention, the underdogs settled into proceedings. It gave them a foothold in the game and Kenny's side grew impatient in the second-half before getting sucker punched.
To justify their favourites tag, it's crucial that Ireland start on the front foot. They have done so in their last three outings - the two matches with Scotland and a draw with Ukraine sandwiched between them - and taken a half-time lead to the dressing room.
It was only in the Dublin match with the Scots that they held onto that advantage until the end, and there has to be confidence that history will repeat here if Ireland start with a purpose that doesn't allow Armenia to relax. Setting a high tempo is essential. The crowd need a reason to stay energised too.
Ireland are odds on to win and there's no value there, but anything in the 2.01/1 territory about a Half Time/Full Time success is worth investing in.
Personnel calls
Kenny will have to make at least one enforced change with midfield lynchpin Josh Cullen suspended. He will have to mull over refreshing the team in other departments.
The plan for this window was that Matt Doherty would play both games - his club manager Antonio Conte is keen on it - and the defenders lack of gametime showed at Hampden Park, especially for Scotland's equaliser.
He was replaced with 15 minutes to go, but it would be a surprise if Doherty was benched as his quality on the ball from that position was missed in Yerevan.
A possible switch is on the other side where Robbie Brady could be favoured over James McClean given this is a game where Ireland may have more of the ball. The recent Preston recruit has a wand of a left foot.
The other major decision is in the striking department. Michael Obafemi is out of favour at Swansea after a proposed move to Burnley fell through, but there were eyebrows raised when he was the first player withdrawn in Scotland because seconds earlier his lung bursting run had laid a chance on a plate for Troy Parrott.
Kenny suggested Obafemi was replaced because of his recent inactivity, but he's such a threat on a good day that it would be crazy to rotate him out of the side now.
He's got a bit of X factor about him and the 11/102.11 on Sportsbook about a goal or assist from Obafemi is extremely tempting.
On his last Dublin outing, he scored a goal and made one. The 22-year-old's movement around the box is improving so there should be no concerns about him needing a counter-attack situation to thrive.
Scott Hogan is a goal poaching type who should also feature at some stage but Obafemi should assume the main responsibility.