England v Austria
Wednesday 2 June, 20:00
Live on ITV
As we saw yesterday when this column fell one card short, props bets in friendlies can be fraught with danger.
However, there looks to be some value to be had in the shots markets ahead of England's clash with Austria in Middlesbrough on Wednesday night.
David Alaba, usually a centre-back for Bayern Munich, has regularly played further forward for his national team with his most recent appearances coming on the left side of midfield in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
That's a good position from which to be conjuring up shots, as his statistics for Austria this season show.
Alaba has managed 1+ shot in five of his seven internationals this season and 2+ shots in three of those matches. As for shots on target, he's landed one in four of the seven.
It's therefore rather surprising to see the Bundesliga title winner at 5/1 for a shot on target in this match and 11/2 for 2+ shots of any kind.
The recommendation is to split the bank between the two - in this case half a point each.
A safer play of 1+ shot can still be backed at even money.
OK, England are better opposition than Alaba has faced in many of those games but they are also going to be fielding a makeshift side tonight with their Manchester City and Chelsea players missing after Saturday's Champions League final.
Manchester United's Europa League finalists are also predicted not to start, while the injured Harry Maguire - the cornerstone of the England defence in recent times - definitely misses out.
In short, the Alaba prices are too big, even considering the chance of him being substituted at some point.
Admittedly there's also a chance he could be moved to left-back (he hardly ever starts in the centre of defence for Austria) in a bid to deal with England's attacking threat down that side but Betfair do offer the chance to cash-out your shots bets prior to kick-off so if you don't like the look of the starting line-up, you can always opt to effectively void the bet.
Column P/L
Staked: 73pts
Returned: 62.03pts
P/L: -10.97pts
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