They say in times of trouble turn to what you know, so after a run a several near misses this week the focus is on La Liga's most-carded player on Saturday.
Omar Alderete has featured in this column before and it's fair to say he's had a few teething troubles in Spain. Since joining on loan from Hertha Berlin in the summer, Alderete has been carded in nine of his 17 league starts for Valencia.
And he should be in for a tough night at the Wanda Metropolitano.
The centre-back is likely to be up against Joao Felix, while the irksome Luis Suarez may also start with Atleti needing to bounce back after two successive cup defeats.
As a whole, Valencia are also La Liga's most-carded team, something referee Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos will be well aware of.
He's virtually bang on average for cards shown this season - 4.8 yellows per game - and it's worth noting he booked Alderete in his only previous meeting with the Paraguayan.
While on the subject of nationality, we've got another potential boost to this bet.
Alderete will fly off to South America immediately after this game for next week's World Cup qualifiers with Paraguay.
Were he to be booked in this match, he'd be suspended for Valencia's game immediately following the international window, meaning he may not have to make the frenzied rush back to Europe which so often causes clubs problems. A few days' down-time back home? It's just a thought.
All things considered, quotes of 15/8 about Alderete being shown a card again make some appeal.
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