Wales v Belarus
Saturday 13 November, 19:45
Live on S4C, Sky Sports Football and Main Event
There are two good-value prices I like the look of for this World Cup qualifier on Saturday night so I'm going to combine the pair to form a 9/1 Bet Builder double.
It's a crucial match for Wales are they continue their bid to reach Qatar 2022. In reality, Belgium are almost certain to wrap up top spot so Rob Page's side are really playing for second place with the Czech Republic their rivals.
With Belgium at home to come next week, the priority for Wales will be simply to win this match but ideally they'll be seeking a wide-margin victory as there looks to be every chance the runners-up spot will boil down to goal difference.
That brings the first leg of our bet into play - Ben Davies to have 2+ shots.
The Spurs left-back does get plenty of licence to push forward for his country and he's duly managed to land this bet in three of his last five starts, including against Belarus in Minsk earlier this year.
It's therefore somewhat surprising to see him up at 10/3 to repeat the feat - it's certainly worth considering as a single.
However, preference is to combine it with a second bet to almost treble the price.
Over 1.5 Wales cards has landed in 18 of the Dragons' last 24 competitive games but it's up at 6/4 here, presumably because Wales are expected to see plenty of the ball and dominate proceedings - it's fairly obvious but one-sided matches often tend to have fewer cards than more closely-fought ones.
Yet, Wales have been consistently strong card collectors and have managed over 1.5 cards against Estonia already in this group, as well as Azerbaijan (home and away) in their Euro 2020 qualifiers, sides they would have been expected to beat, albeit the Welsh are a team who dole out thrashings.
Ref Maurizio Mariani has shown 13 cards in his three competitive international appointments and is averaging a fraction below five per game in all competitions this season, so there's nothing off-putting there.
Overall, the double looks a tasty one at odds of 9/1.
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Recommended bets
Column 2021/22 P/L
Staked: 88pts
Returned: 109.48pts
P/L: +21.48pts
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