Sassuolo v Fiorentina: No cards looks massive at 39/1

• Nothing at stake in Serie A final-day game

• Referee a below-average carder

• 39/1 about no cards just too big

There's not a lot for props punters to go at on Friday so let's try to repeat a trick which landed us a big win last weekend.

Backing no cards in final-day games with nothing at stake has long been a tactic of mine, with it having a track record of success in England - the latest example being on Sunday when it landed in Chelsea v Newcastle at 18/1.

I'll be honest, I've not studied the stats for the same bet in Italy but there's certainly enough to like about it here.

Little at stake on final day

First of all, we've got two teams with nothing to play for - it's one reason the game has been moved to Friday and away from the other Serie A matches.

Both sides could climb one place this weekend but I'm not exactly convinced that will mean they will be flying into tackles in a win-or-die fashion.

For the record, both are in mid-table when it comes to fair play.

Referee fits the bill

We've also got a referee who is a below-average carder in Matteo Marchetti.
He's averaging 3.9 yellows per game - he's also shown one red - whereas the league average is 4.37. That's a considerable difference.

It's also worth noting that Marchetti's last Serie A match landed the no-cards bet - and that involved Fiorentina when they faced Napoli, who had already been crowned champions.

This time, La Viola will be very much focused on next week's Europa Conference League final against West Ham. This game matters little to them.

The clincher for the bet is the price - by putting both teams under 0.5 cards into a Bet Builder, you get almost 39/140.00. It's too big given the circumstances.

OK, it's still unlikely but with that in mind I'm also happy to back under 3.5 cards at evens - if we split stakes between the two then if there are less than four cards, we won't lose any money.

History is on our side here. Under 3.5 cards has landed in 12 of the last 20 Serie A games on the final day (60%) with that percentage rising when games with nothing at stake are taken into account.

It also delivered in the equivalent fixture last season.

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