Tuesday Football Tips: Ref makes 6/1 fouls bet worth a try

Le Normand has conceded 2+ fouls in nine of his last 11 games

With a strict ref in charge of Real Sociedad v Almeria on Tuesday evening, our football props column is eyeing up a 6/1 fouls bet.

  • La Liga's best ref for fouls appointed

  • Le Normand 2+ fouls in 9 of last 11

  • Add Almeria star for 6/1 Bet Builder


There's not a lot to go at for props punters on Tuesday but there is a decent opportunity in La Liga.

We're heading to San Sebastian where Champions League-chasing Real Sociedad host relegation-threatened Almeria so, with just three games to go, both teams should be busting a gut in search of precious points.

Notably, the referee in charge is Pablo Gonzalez Fuertes, who leads the league for fouls per game. His average of 29.33 is more than three per match higher than the league average as a whole.

We've also got Spain's highest-fouling team - Sociedad - involved and while Almeria's figures aren't so high, their need for points could well lead to some desperate measures being taken.

I guess the danger in the fouls market is the visitors sit off and try to defend deep - such tactics messed up last night's bet in Newcastle v Leicester - but Almeria haven't been good defensively this season with only two teams conceding more goals.

They've carried more goal threat than most of their relegation rivals - over the past month they've netted 10 times in five games, winning three - so it may well be that attack is the best form of defence.

Leg 1: Robin Le Normand 2+ fouls

Any way, the fouls markets certainly look worth a visit and, for me, two players stand out in value terms.

For the hosts, centre-back Robin Le Normand has had 2+ fouls in nine of his last 11 games and it's not hard to see him getting involved with trying to stop Lucas Robertone's runs from deep - he's La Liga's third most-fouled player this season.

Despite this, Le Normand is offered at 8/5 for 2+ fouls.

Leg 2: Adrian Embarba 2+ fouls

I'll double him up with Almeria's Adrian Embarba, also for 2+ fouls.

He's landed this bet in his last three starts and the wide man will likely need to do his fair share of tracking back in this one with the hosts expected to take the game to Almeria.

With the no-nonsense Fuertes on the whistle, there's enough there to suggest our 6/1 Bet Builder can deliver.

Back Le Normand & Embarba 2+ fouls each @

6/1

Recommended bets

Back Robin Le Normand and Adrian Embarba 2+ fouls each @ around 6/1

Column P/L 2022/23

Staked: 308pts
Returned: 350.56pts
P/L: +42.56pts

Andy Schooler

Andy Schooler has been writing about sport for more than 20 years.

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