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There have been Under 2.5 Goals in 23/30 USA games
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And also in the last five Netherlands matches
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The Dutch are unbeaten in 18 since Euro 2020
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Netherlands v USA
Saturday 15:00 (Live on BBC1)
Group A winners the Netherlands take on Group B runners-up USA on Saturday afternoon. The winner of this match will go forward to face Argentina or Australia in the quarter finals.
Louis van Gaal's Netherlands are around even-money favourites to win in 90 minutes and move through. They came through their group unbeaten (W2-D1-L0) and having conceded just a single goal. We reckon they will have too much for the USA.
The Dutch haven't lost any match since the Czechs beat them at this stage of Euro 2020 in June last year (W13-D5-L0). After going through a run of high-scoring games, Van Gaal has tightened up the Oranje: they've conceded just once across five matches since September, with all five delivering Under 2.5 Goals.
That tallies nicely with a strong trend in the USA's recent record: since July last year, 23/30 of their games have ended with Under 2.5 Goals - and lot of the games that bucked the trend involved the Americans sticking a few goals past weak opposition like Grenada, Panama and Honduras.
Nothing like that should happen here and Under 2.5 Goals is a worthy favourite. With the Americans only scoring twice across their last five matches, we also fancy the Netherlands to win. For a longer-priced punt, we like the Netherlands Win To Nil at 3.02/1 or above.
Chief USA attackers Christian Pulisic and Josh Sargent both left their last match early through injury. If either of them miss out here, the chance of a Dutch shutout will only increase.
If you're looking for a goalscorer to add into a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook, Cody Gakpo has the eye-catching form (three games, three goals in Qatar) but he's only actually had four shots in total. Don't dismiss Memphis Depay, who missed time during the group stage, but has already notched six shots - and has scored 42 in 81 appearances for his country.