Flamengo v Fluminense: Take 30/1 cards punt in Rio

• Red card in 7 of last 9 Rio derbies

• Duo look overpriced for cards given records

• Three-legged Bet Builder at 30/1 looks tasty

Flamengo v Fluminense
Thursday 1 June, 23:59

It's Rio derby time again on Thursday and while it may not have rained cards in the first leg of this Copa do Brasil tie, it's surely too soon to abandon the tactic of backing a high number of cards.

That goalless first leg produced just two cards - one of each colour - but prior to that the booking points make-ups for this fixture had been frankly huge.

Since fans were allowed back into the stadia, post-lockdown, the 10 derbies have brought totals of 35, 70, 85, 95, 150, 105, 130, 100, 150 and 90.

For the uninitiated, it's 10 points for a yellow card and 25 for a red.

So, what's the approach here?

Leg 1: Red card in the match

Well, first up I like a red card at 7/42.75, something that's occurred in seven of the last nine meetings of these two great rivals.

The scoreline of two weeks ago sets things up nicely for a competitive encounter here, while referee Raphael Claus looks a strong appointment.

He's averaging around five cards per game throughout this season, while his record when it comes to producing cards in this fixture is good.

Claus has taken charge of the Rio derby on three occasions. One was behind closed doors (when card numbers tailed off considerably across the board) but the two played in front of fans have seen 11 and 10 cards respectively. Seven of the 21 have been red.

Leg 2: Andre to be shown a card

Moving onto the player card markets, two men stand out, one from each side.

For Fluminense, defensive midfielder Andre looks a bet at 15/82.88.

That's pretty much what you'd expect about a player who has been carded in eight of his 24 starts this season but when you factor in his derby record of seven cards in 11 starts, it looks a good price.

Leg 3: Gerson to be shown a card

That midfield area is likely to see challenges fly in at the Maracana and the hosts' Gerson may well be in the thick of that action.

Rio born and bred, he's already been carded nine times in 2023 with eight of his 21 starts bringing a card.

Add in a record of five cards in 11 appearances against Fluminense, and quite why he's available at 7/24.50 is hard to fathom.

This column has had some big winners of late but this 29/130.00 Bet Builder would top the lot.

I don't think it should be that much of a long shot as it really wouldn't be a surprise to see this turn into glorious card-fest.

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