Cruzeiro v Fortaleza: Ref choice makes 9/1 punt appeal

• Ref has had over 4.5 cards in 14 of last 16 games

• Also has high fouls count - three players worth backing

• Five-legged Bet Builder at 9/1 appeals

Cruzeiro v Fortaleza
Wednesday 21 June, 23:00
Live on Fanatiz

With the European season now officially over following the conclusion of the latest round of Euro 2024 qualifiers, you can expect plenty of focus to fall on South America in this column over the next few weeks.

We start on Wednesday in Brazil with a match which has plenty to like about it for props punters.

First up, it's notable that these are two of the top three teams for shots in Serie A, although I'm struggling to find much value in the shots markets.

Leg 1: Bruno Rodrigues do Nascimento 1+ shot on target

I will, however, kick off our Bet Builder with what looks a solid foundation - Bruno Rodrigues do Nascimento to have 1+ shot on target.

No-one has had more shots on target in this division so far this season, while only one player has had more shots of any kind than the Cruzeiro man.

He's landed this in eight of 10 games and, with home advantage, can stretch that run here.

Leg 2: Over 4.5 cards

This also looks a good game for cards and fouls given the referee appointment.

Bruno Arleu de Araujo is one of the strictest officials in Brazil and so far this season is averaging close to eight cards per game in Serie A.

In a run which stretches back into last season, he's shown over 4.5 cards in 14 of his last 16 Serie A games so that gets the nod, especially when you consider he handed Cruzeiro no fewer than six when their paths crossed earlier in the year.

Cruzeiro are sitting seventh in the cards table and while Fortaleza are in the bottom half of those standings, they are still averaging more than two per game.

Leg 3: William 2+ fouls

Next, to the fouls market - Araujo is close to 32 fouls per game across his five Serie A matches which even by Brazilian standards is good going.

I like two players for 2+ fouls.

The first is Cruzeiro right-back William, who significantly is set to go up against Calebe, who has been fouled 22 times - that's twice the number of any team-mate.

William may 'only' have landed this four times in nine starts but the referee and his direct opponent mean evens is a price worth taking.

Leg 4: Bruno Pacheco 2+ fouls

For Fortaleza, back Bruno Pacecho.

The left-back has more fouls than anyone in his squad and has nailed this in six of his last eight appearances.

On that side of the pitch he goes up against two highly-fouled players - winger Wesley and raiding full-back William.

Leg 5: Tinga 1+ foul

The last leg of our Bet Builder is in the 1+ foul market with visiting right-back Tinga making the cut.

He's set to be the man charged with stopping Rodrigues do Nascimento, who is Cruzeiro's most-fouled man.

Tinga has hit this in eight of 15 starts in all competitions but, again, the ref and opponent make a repeat look good.

The five legs put together produce a price of just under 9/1.

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