Croatia v Turkey: Expect cards in crunch qualifier

• Leaders Croatia have never lost a home Euros qualifier

• Turkey have new boss after awful September

• Back hosts in three-legged Bet Builder at 7/4

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Croatia v Turkey
Thursday 12 October, 19:45
Live on Viaplay Xtra

Finalists and semi-finalists at the last two World Cups, Croatia recently finished runners-up in the UEFA Nations League to prove they are still a formidable side.

Their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign has also begun well - three wins and a draw (with just one goal conceded) have them top of Group D heading into a crucial October.

This game against Turkey, who also have 10 points, is followed on Sunday by a trip to Wales who, like Armenia, sit three points further back.

With games against Latvia and Armenia to follow next month, avoid defeat in October and they should be heading to Germany next summer.

Leg 1: Croatia to win

Victory here would certainly make life easier and, despite injuries to Ivan Perisic, Mirslav Orsic and Andrej Kramaric, they should be able to get it.

Excluding their penalty shoot-out loss to Spain in that Nations League final, Croatia have lost just two of their 29 games since the last European Championship. In that period, they've beaten France and Netherlands (plus Brazil on penalties), not to mention the Turks, 2-0 in the reverse fixture.

Turkey head into this one with a new boss following a miserable September which cost Stefan Kuntz his job.

They needed an 88th-minute equaliser to earn a 1-1 home draw with Armenia and then lost 4-2 to Japan in a friendly.

Vincenzo Montella is the new man in charge but this looks a very tough opening assignment - Croatia have never lost a home Euro qualifier - and the suspension of key defender Merih Demiral hardly helps the cause.

A home win makes the cut at 6/10, while I'm also expecting cards in this game.

Leg 2: Croatia over 1.5 cards

English referee Anthony Taylor has the whistle and he's got a long track record in European club football of producing many more cards than he does domestically.

His numbers in the international game aren't quite so good but he's still shown a least four cards in eight of his last 10 such matches.

Both teams also have decent long-term card numbers.

Croatia have landed the over 1.5 cards bet in 27 of their last 47 competitive internationals, including the reverse fixture earlier this year.

Leg 3: Turkey over 1.5 cards

As for Turkey, they've delivered 2+ cards in 27 of their last 40, including four of five in this qualifying group.

Such a big game in a tight group should ensure a highly competitive affair and with Taylor in charge, both teams can be taken to pick up a couple of cards.

That produces a Bet Builder which pays around 7/4.

Euro 2024: Dan Fitch with his best bets for Thursday's qualifiers