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Boca lost just 1 in 27 Copa Libertadores home games
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There were 9 yellows & 2 reds in the first meeting
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Back a 4/1 Bet Builder treble on a Boca home win
Boca Juniors have already booked their place in the Copa Libertadores knockouts so now need just a point at home against Venezuelan outfit Monagas to confirm top spot in the group.
The Argentinian champions suffered a 4-0 hammering against Godoy Cruz last time out so will want to put that right at the Bombonera against a Monagas side who will have to come out firing to stand any chance of getting through.
The visitors have just one win in seven though and a pretty woeful away record of just one win in 13 so it looks like a huge step too far - as their odds of 12/113.00 for an away win suggest.
Leg 1: Boca to win
Boca have lost just once in their last 27 home games in the Copa Libertadores and defensively they've been as stingy as you like - keeping 10 clean sheets in their last 12.
They've won five of the last six with three clean sheets and with Monagas being so dismal away from home, losing all six games in this competition, then Boca are rightly huge favourites.
Complacency or major team changes would be the only doubt as they don't need to win, but after being hammered last time out they can't afford a lacklustre display in front of their own fans.
Leg 2: Under 2.5 goals
Boca are having a spot of trouble finding the net recently - drawing a blank in three of their last six games, while Monagas have gone one better, coming up empty handed in four of their last six.
Nine of Boca's last 10 games have gone under 2.5 goals, and while Monagas have shown they can mix it they'll have real trouble breaking down this home defence.
So under 2.5 goals looks a nice price at 9/101.90 A low-scoring scrappy encounter is predicted.
Leg 3: Over 6.5 cards
Talking of a scrappy game, the cards market is worth a look here, especially given what happened in the first meeting between these two sides.
Monagas got three bookings while Boca got six yellows and two reds in an ill-tempered 0-0 draw in Venezuela.
There's obviously something about Monagas that just rubs Boca up the wrong way so you wouldn't even rule out more home cards here.
Best to cover both bases though so go for over 6.5 total cards in the match at just a shade of odds-on at 19/201.95.
COLUMN P/L SUMMER 2023
Staked: 7ptsReturned: 5.5pts
P/L: -1.5pts
2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts