Tuesday Football Tips: Go for Gremio to edge ahead at 11/2

• Gremio host Fluminense having won last seven meetings

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Gremio vs Fluminense
1st leg, Tuesday 13 August
Kick-off 23:00 BST

We start the knockout stages of the Copa Libertadores with an all-Brazilian last-16 tie between Gremio and Fluminense, with the first leg taking place in Porto Alegre.

Fluminense lifted the trophy for the very first time in their history last season and as defending champions are seeded fourth in the knockouts after finishing as unbeaten group winners, while Gremio lost twice to get through as group runners-up.

Gremio sit four points above their opponents in the league though with Fluminense in the relegation zone despite four wins in five, and the hosts are 1/12.00 favourites to win this first leg and extend their seven-game winning run over their fellow Brazilians.

Leg 1: Gremio to win

I think Gremio are a good bet to win the first leg at 1/12.00 and take some sort of advantage with them to Rio for the second leg - even it it's just a narrow one.

Fluminense's recent league form has been promising but they've still got just two Serie A away wins to their name this term and have lost their last couple of road trips in all competitions.

Then there's the big fat elephant in the room of their recent form against Gremio - where seven straight defeats making 'bogey team' seem like a huge understatement.

Five of those seven losses have been 1-0s, including the last meeting at the end of June, and you suspect Flu might just take that result again to keep themselves well in the tie for the return leg in front of their own fans at the Maracana.

Leg 2: Under 2.5 goals

I fancy the hosts to get another clean sheet but we get a bit more bang for our buck if we take the under 2.5 goals line at 1/21.50 as this won't be a blowout.

Flu have been grafting away even if they've lost a few - plus their last eight away games in Serie A have all gone under, so don't expect too many goals here.

Leg 3: Gremio most corners

Our final leg is the 4/71.57 on offer for Gremio to have the most corners in the game - which has landed in 10 of their 13 home games in all competitions this season.

They've earned more corners than Fluminense (106-89) in Serie A this season and crucially have also conceded a lot less (90-120) so we've got the perfect conditions to go for the home side in the corners match bet.

Gremio also won the corner count 6-1 in that most recent meeting in June.

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