Germany v Denmark: Fouls and shots make up 3/1 Bet Builder

• Germany foul numbers look strong - back duo

• Rudiger ready to land shots bet for 4th time out of 4

• Back 3/1 Bet Builder in last-16 showdown

Germany v Denmark
Saturday 29 June, 20:00
Live on ITV1

German fouls helped us land a winner when they faced Scotland in the group stages and it's a theme worth returning to for their Euro 2024 last-16 tie with Denmark on Saturday.

Leg 1: Antonio Rudiger to commit 1+ foul

Julian Nagelsmann has certainly added more aggression to this Germany team and they've posted strong foul numbers before and during this tournament under his leadership.

In the group stage, Germany committed 15 fouls against Scotland, 13 versus Hungary and 12 in the 1-1 draw with Switzerland which sent them through to this stage as pool winners.

Referee Michael Oliver may only have shown two cards in his two matches so far but he's blown for 48 fouls which is a decent figure.

As mentioned in that Scotland preview, Antonio Rudiger's foul numbers are up considerably in a Germany shirt (compared to a Real Madrid one) and he's likely to have to deal with Rasmus Hojlund in this contest which should be a real physical battle.

Rudiger, expected to be fit after returning to full training on Friday, has managed a foul in 13 of his last 15 international appearances and looks a solid base for our Bet Builder.

Leg 2: Toni Kroos to commit 1+ foul

Toni Kroos also looks a spot of value at 8/13 for a foul.

That's something he's landed in five of the midfielder's six starts since his return to the international fold.

The absence of the suspended Morten Hjulmand means Christian Norgaard will likely come in and the Brentford man is a player who commits and draws fouls aplenty, certainly more than the man he is replacing.

As an added bonus, Kroos nearly always plays 90 minutes which is always welcomed by props punters.

Leg 3: Antonio Rudiger 1+ shot

Finally, let's return to Rudiger in the shots market.

He's had four so far in the tournament, landing the 1+ shot bet in all three group games.

The former Chelsea man has two ways of delivering shots.

First, he's a big threat from set pieces - two of his shots have come this way - and, secondly, he's not afraid to strike from distance, something we often saw from him in his Premier League days.

With Denmark likely to set out to thwart - they had the third-best expected-goals-against (xGA) figure of the group stage - it's not hard to see Rudiger stepping forward to try his luck at some point.

The treble pays just over 3/14.00.

I also considered a couple of other bets which have the potential to make a really big Bet Builder.

Jamal Musiala had a shot on target in all three group matches - it's now eight of 10 overall - but my concern here is that Germany struggled to create clear-cut chances against Switzerland and I'm expecting this contest to play out in similar fashion.

Also, Andreas Christensen could offer some value in the shots markets for Denmark.

He's had four so far at Euro 2024, making him one of the most potent defenders. There's been at least one in all three games.

Denmark haven't created huge amounts but a lot of their best chances have come from set plays.

If they get a few here, there's every chance the Barcelona centre-back gets his head on one at 7/52.40.

Now read Kevin Hatchard's in-depth preview of Germany v Denmark!

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