Tuesday Football Tips: Stick with Isak in 11/2 Bet Builder

• Isak bidding to score for 8th game in a row

• Merino averaging SOT every 94 minutes

• Back Bet Builder double at around 11/26.50

Arsenal v Newcastle
Tuesday 7 January, 20:00
Live on ITV1, Sky Sports Football & SS Main Event

I wanted to look at Sporting Lisbon v Porto on Tuesday night - the Portuguese League Cup semi-final which promises cards aplenty.

Sadly, the markets weren't available at time of writing but, for when they are, it's worth noting that the fixture has seen a red card in eight of its last 12 stagings.

Anyway, I've had to turn to the English League Cup semi-final instead and I apologise in advance if I get the team news all wrong - this competition always proves so tricky on that front.

You'd have thought it would be easy for the managers to simply select full-strength sides but injuries and suspensions mean that won't be the case and you have to question whether others will be rested or not risked too.

Arsenal have eight games in four different competitions this month, with Manchester United next up in the FA Cup at the weekend. Mikel Arteta needs to keep his players as fresh as possible, especially with an ever-growing injury list which now includes Ethan Nwaneri.

As for Newcastle, their schedule is less busy and with Bromley to come on Sunday at home, Eddie Howe will go strong. That said, captain Bruno Guimaraes and Fabian Schar are both suspended, while you have to wonder if Sven Botman will be given his second start in four days given he's just back from months on the sidelines.

Leg 1: Alexander Isak to score

There are two prices I like here.

The first gets few marks for originality but 11/53.20 about Alexander Isak scoring for what would be the eighth game in a row simply looks too big.

The Swede, who scored the winner when these sides met at St James' Park earlier this season, just has that scoring touch at the moment and while Arsenal are generally pretty tight defensively, they've kept just one clean sheet in their last five and that was against lowly Ipswich.

On a run of six straight wins, Newcastle have scored twice at both Spurs and Manchester United in the past week and if they are to find the net here, Isak is far and away their most likely scorer.

Leg 2: Mikel Merino 1+ shot on target

The other price involves Mikel Merino.

Admittedly, he's not a guaranteed starter in the Arsenal midfield but he has started five of the last seven.

The Spaniard has been notable for shots on target of late, landing the 1+ SOT bet in three of those five starts.

Dig deeper and you find Merino has had a shot on target every 94 minutes on average, since having his first in a game against Liverpool back in October.

With Arsenal looking to get ahead in this tie before next month's second leg on Tyneside, Merino is worth backing at 6/52.20.

The Bet Builder double pays around 11/26.50, although I would urge you to make the most of the luxury I don't have, which is to check the team news before getting involved.

More Arsenal v Newcastle: Lewis Jones' 12/1 shots bet!