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Hosts can win comfortably
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A season of struggle for Sporting
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Spot kick specialist Joao Mario a good price to score
Under former PSV manager Roger Schmidt, Benfica were running away with it before the World Cup, having won 12 out of their 13 matches and drawing the other.
And some of their key players had a tournament to remember out in Qatar. Goncalo Ramos' hat-trick against Switzerland saw his transfer value more than double overnight and it would be no surprise at all if he became just the latest big-money sale in the summer with Manchester United apparently interested.
And Benfica produced two World Cup winners. Not only were Nicolas Otamendi and Enzo Fernandez part of Argentina's team, they were integral players, with both featuring in every match.
Fernandez, Young Player of the Tournament no less, was then the subject of interest from some of Europe's top clubs, including Chelsea.
As far as he was concerned, he was ready to make his big money move despite only having joined Benfica in the summer. But then again, it wasn't his decision to make, he was told he wasn't going anywhere until his release clause price had been met and was staying put, presumably until the summer. To make matters worse, his week of partying in Buenos Aires was done without the club's permission and he's since been disciplined.
But he was back playing in midweek, scoring the second in a routine 2-0 win in the Portuguese Cup.
Last weekend Benfica gave the field a chance by going down 3-0 at Braga, their first league defeat of the season, but there were mitigating circumstances. It was a result that very much flattered Braga, who are after all in second place, not to mention Benfica were still missing a few players after World Cup exertions.
Left-back Grimaldo and speedy forward Rafa are injury doubts.
A season of struggle for Sporting
Sporting's 2020-21 win in the league seems like it was a long time ago now.
That season they benefited from the fact that Benfica and Porto (and Braga) were going through a transitionary phase that season and that Sporting edged a load of games by a single goal. They also managed to avoid defeat against all of those three until losing 4-3 to Benfica in the penultimate game of the season when the title was already wrapped up.
There's been little progress since and many of the players who were part of that side have left for pastures new with their replacements simply not up to the same standard.
In Europe they suffered the slight humiliation of being the only one of the three Portuguese Champions League participants to not make it to the next round and were pretty fortunate to eventually finish third.
In the league they're currently fourth, a huge 12 points off leaders Benfica with even a third-place finish that would lead to a Champions League spot looking a long way off, should they lose this one.
They've already lost five matches out of 15 and are fresh from defeat at Maritimo last week. Things aren't going to get any easier on Sunday.
Watch out for Martin Edwards. The English former Tottenham youth player has been one of the few positives at Sporting this season, already racking up seven goals, including scoring away in the Champions League against...Tottenham.
Hosts can win comfortably
Benfica are 1.855/6 to win this one. That's an excellent price. Yes, it's a shade of odds-on so won't be for everyone but that's missing the point; those are far bigger odds than what you'd expect them to be.
Let's recall that Benfica have won 13 of their 15 league games this season, are still in the Cup and were superb in the Champions League, pipping PSG to top spot after drawing with them twice and beating Juventus both home and away.
We've covered Sporting's struggles already.
There are a few reasons that might explain that big-looking price.
The first is that the men in green have admittedly won on their last two visits to Estadio da Luz.
The second is that Benfica may need a little more time to get back to their best after having so many players involved at the World Cup, as evidenced by that defeat to Braga. But then again, Sporting lost last weekend as well.
All in all, it might pay to be a little more ambitious.
At 8/5 (2.68/5) rather than 1.855/6 you can back Benfica -1 on the handicap, meaning you'd need them to win by two clear goals.
Prior to the World Cup they won four in a row (including a Champions League game) with scorelines of (most recent first): 3-1. 5-1, 6-1, 5-0; all of those would have been winners with the -1 handicap, the last three very comfortable winners.
Spot kick specialist Joao Mario a good price to score
Joao Mario didn't have many opportunities to impress for Portugal at the World Cup but he's had a fine season for Benfica.
Interestingly, he's had two spells at Sporting. He started his career there before playing there two seasons ago on loan from Inter Milan. He spent five seasons in Italy, though he only made 60-odd appearances for them, often being loaned out.
In his first spell at Sporting he scored 11 goals in 65 appearances and in his second just two in 28 games. But it's been a very different story at Benfica.
This season he's already scored 11 times, including the winner from the penalty spot in last week's 1-0 win over Portimonense.
Of course, it helps that Benfica keep getting a load of penalties.
Eight of those 11 have come from the spot.
And with that in mind, the 6/4 that a spot kick is awarded in the match is worth a look, as well.
A Bet Builder to consider
Over in the world of Bet Builders, there's a decent bet going there, as well.
Goncalo Ramos' nine goals in 13 league games suggest that World Cup hat-trick was no fluke. He's 13/10 to make it ten (or more) for the season here.
In a game that could well be full of goals, especially given Benfica's potential to score them, a goal in both halves at 6/10 should land as well.