-
Long odds-on that cards will be shown
-
Ugarte and Marcano prime candidates to be carded
-
At least two goals fancied
-
Back all selectons in a boosted 7/1 Bet Builder
Sunday evenings on BT Sport are quite often all about Serie A. This time though, the standout fixture comes from Portugal as Sporting host Porto in a big fixture in the capital.
There's an important three points available for both sides as both need a win for their own reasons. Sporting are fourth currently, and there's a five-point gap between them and the Champions League places. As for Porto, they're eight points behind leaders Benfica and need to start closing the gap.
This match has great Bet Builder potential as there's reason to expect plenty of cards and there's also an argument to be made for goals.
The argument for cards
The rivalry between FC Porto and Sporting Lisbon is known as Dragões vs Leões which translates to Dragons vs Lions, and it's considered one of the most important fixtures in Portugal.
There's no love lost between the two clubs, and it's regularly a cards fest when they meet. They last met at the end of last month and there were eight yellow cards and a red between them. In the last league fixture, there were five yellows and a red.
Red cards are almost a staple of the rivalry, and I'm genuinely impressed at how often they occur. At least one player has been given their marching orders in five of the last six meetings between Sporting and Porto, including the last three on the spin.
When you're backing cards, you always want the referee to be onside. Thankfully, this one will be officiated by none other than Artur Soares Dias, a man who isn't shy one bit. He's averaging 6.33 yellow cards per game domestically.
I ended up digging even further and found that this season, Soares Dias has handed Sporting more cards than any other side, a whopping 15 across three matches in fact. That's just for Sporting by the way, not including their opponents.
Soares Dias took charge of Santa Clara vs Sporting and gave out seven cards. Then it was Famalicao vs Sporting where there were 11 cards. And more recently, it was Benfica vs Sporting where there were a further seven cards.
So across three Sporting fixtures this season, he'd dished out 25 cards at an average of 8.33 per game.
The cards culprits
Artur Soares Dias loves a card, but who will he book?
The standout pick for Sporting must be Uruguayan Manuel Ugarte, He's always in the thick of it and has already been given two yellows by Soares Dias this season.
Ugarte is Sporting's most carded player in the league this season having been booked seven times in 18 appearances from the heart of their midfield. He's received a yellow in three out of his last six games in all comps, including the last meeting with Porto in January.
Ugarte has committed for fouls than any other Sporting player this season, and he's averaging a large 2.43 fouls per 90 minutes. What's also interesting is that he's Sporting's most fouled player as well, something that can always lead to frustration and a bit of handbags.
Another player who looks great for cards is Porto's ageing centre half Ivan Marcano. The 35-year-old veteran has been booked four times in just 12 appearances.
Sporting have a youthful and talented attacking line with the likes of Marcus Edwards (24) and Youssef Chermiti (18). I'd be surprised if they aren't tasked with running at Marcano who's clearly slowing down.
Having watched a reel of Marcano's recent fouls, they come from him rushing out from the back four in order to get into the back of the opponent before they're able to turn. I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick it on Edwards but you simply cannot let him play.
Goals look likely
There's always going to be the possibility of goals when you've got two of the four best sides in the league going head-to-head.
Sporting have averaged 3.05 goals per game in the league so far this season, and Porto have an average of 2.95 per game.
Sporting's overall goals average increases when they play at home. They average 3.44 goals per game at the Jose Alvalade Stadium where they've had two or more goals in 100% of their matches so over 1.5 goals in this one could be a shout.
Five out of the last six meetings between Sporting and Porto in all competitions saw at least a couple of goals scored.