Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge
Wednesday 12 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport
Atletico Madrid's defence isn't what it was.
And here they will be facing the surprise package of the 2022/23 Champions League so far, one more than capable of testing them on home soil.
It looks worth trying to find an angle opposing the hosts, who look very short at 2/5 to win this game given they've lost two of three so far in the group - including the reverse fixture in Belgium last week - and three of their last five in all competitions.
In terms of that once-feared defence, it has now managed just one clean sheet in the last eight games.
And if you look at the data for shots conceded, you see that isn't an anomaly.
Across the opening three games of this competition, they sit 12th of the 32 teams for most shots conceded, while in La Liga, they are ninth of 20.
Such numbers would have been unheard of a few years ago.
So how do we try to take advantage of this?
I like the visitors' Ferran Jutgla for 1+ shot on target, something he's managed in nine of 11 starts this season, including against Atleti last week.
The former Barcelona man will surely be determined to continue his impressive form (eight goals and five assists this season) back on home soil against one of the country's biggest clubs.
We've got the added bonus of him being on penalties too.
To bump up the price, I'm going to combine that with under 3.5 goals in the game.
That's occurred in 10 of Atleti's 11 games this season and 11 of Brugge's 15.
The Bet Builder double pays just over 6/4.
More Champions League tips: Every game previewed!
Column P/L 2022/23
Staked: 111pts
Returned: 130.94pts
P/L: +19.94pts