Argentinos Juniors v Fluminense: Go high on cards and low on goals

• Rivalry and ref points to cards

• Copa first leg set to be low-scoring affair

• Back our 6/4 Bet Builder

Argentinos Juniors v Fluminense
Tuesday 1 August, 23:00

The Copa Libertadores returns on Tuesday night when the knockout stage begins.

As a keen cards punter, my eye is always attracted to the Argentina v Brazil clashes, of which there are two on Tuesday. It's a great rivalry.

Leg 1: Over 5.5 cards

The one I'm focusing on sees Argentinos Juniors host Fluminense in the first leg of their last-16 tie and that has a lot to do with the choice of referee.

Chilean Piero Maza has taken charge of seven continental club games so far in 2023 and produced no fewer than 44 yellow cards and two reds.

Looking at those figures, you won't be surprised to learn he's shown over 5.5 cards in six of those seven matches.

His average in his homeland is also over six cards per game so over 5.5 cards is a bet I'm happy to take here, especially given the hosts have already had four reds in this season's competition. Fluminense, meanwhile, are the fourth-best team in Brazil's top flight for cards.

Leg 2: Under 2.5 goals

A low-scoring game also looks likely. The Brazilians have failed to score in seven of their last eight away matches and so will surely look to keep things tight in the first leg before trying to win the tie in Rio.

Juniors' two group-stage games with Brazilian side Corinthians produced just one goal between them and Flu sit much higher in the domestic standings - and have a better defensive record.

Six of the eight first legs in the last 16 last season landed the under 2.5 goals bet and this looks a prime candidate to follow that trend.

The Bet Builder double pays 6/42.50.

For those seeking a bigger price, maybe considering adding a player-card bet.
Javier Cabrera has seven cards in 30 appearances this season for the hosts so could offer some value at 10/3, while old friend Andre is far and away

Fluminense's most-carded player - he has 13 in 36 games, although his price of 6/4 reflects that.

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