Wolves v Crystal Palace: Wolves can edge low-scoring contest

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Wolves manager Bruno Lage

"Odds of almost 6/4 for Wolves in the outright market are enticing but the bet I like is Wolves and under 3.5 goals at around 2/1."

Wolves host Crystal Palace on Saturday with the home side looking to avoid a third Premier League defeat in-a-row but Steve Rawlings fancies Bruno Lage's men to get back on track...

European dreams fading fast for Wolves

After a run of eight Premier League games in which Wolves lost just once (W6 D1), Bruno Lage's men are now looking to avoid a third defeat in-a-row.

Feint hopes of Champions League participation next season are all but over and having been matched at a low of 2.546/4 to finish inside the top-six, after they'd won all four games played in January, they're now trading at 6.05/1 in that market.

February began with a 1-0 home defeat to Norwich in the FA Cup and that seemed to knock them off kilter. Defeat by the same score at home to Arsenal immediately followed and that was their first league loss in two months - since they'd lost 1-0 at Manchester City thanks to an extremely contentious penalty.

Wolves looked to be getting back on track when they went to Spurs and won 2-0, before edging out Leicester 2-1 at Molineux but the xG of 1.43 - 0.67 in favour of the Foxes suggests a draw may have been a fairer result there. Although out of form at the time, Leicester had the bulk of the possession (64%) and 17 shots to Wolves' ten.

Narrow away defeats in the capital, 2-1 at Arsenal and 1-0 at West Ham, have followed the Leicester win and Wolves will be determined to get back to winning ways on Saturday.

Safe Palace can concentrate on the Cup

Generally 6/4 shots to be relegated at the start of the season, and matched at as low as evens for the drop, Crystal Palace have enjoyed a decent campaign so far under the stewardship of Roy Hodgson's replacement - Patrick Vieira.

The Eagles lost six of their last eight games last term to finish only 14th but they'll have designs on finishing in the top half of table this time around given they currently sit 11th and following their narrow victory away at Stoke on Tuesday, they're still in the FA Cup.

The Eagles will fancy their chances of advancing to the semis now that they've been drawn to face Everton at home in the last eight and they're currently 20.019/1 to lift the Cup.

As pleased as he would have been to have progressed, Vieira wasn't too enamoured by the performance on Tuesday night and he'll be looking for a reaction on Saturday.

"I was really disappointed with how we played today," he said after the game. "We didn't use the ball, we didn't create chances and we didn't defend well as a team. If we want to go further, we need to play better."

Palace have lost three times already at Selhurst Park this year - to West Ham, Liverpool and Chelsea - but we have to go all the way back to a 3-0 loss to Spurs on Boxing Day for their last defeat on the Road.

That's a little misleading though and the Eagles have won just one of their last eight Premier League games (D4 L3), winning 4-1 away against a woeful Watford in their last away game.

Palace haven't won consecutive league away games since June 2020 and their unbeaten run on the road could come to an abrupt end on Saturday.

Wolves can edge low-scoring contest

Under 2.5 is odds-on in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market and rightly so. There have been less than three goals scored in the last eight matches between these two in all competitions.

Palace have won the last two meetings in the Premier League but they've never won three league matches on the bounce against Wolves and they're looking to complete the league double over them for just the third time, in what is the 30th different campaign in which they've met. The Eagles previously did so in the second tier in 1995-96 and 2012-13.

No is trading at a shade better than 4/5 in the Both Teams to Score market and that looks more than fair given the last five encounters between the two sides have ended 1-0 or 2-0.

Both Under 2.5 and No in the Both Teams to Score market are tempting, even at odds-on, but I'm quite keen to get with the home side.

Odds of almost 6/4 for Wolves in the outright market are enticing but the bet I like is Wolves and under 3.5 goals at around 2/1.

There have been four goals scored in only one of 12 Premier League matches at Molineux this season and Wolves' 3-2 win at Aston Villa back in October is the only other occasion that there have been more than 3.5 goals scored in a Premier League match involving Wolves this term.

A tight affair in which the home side get back on track with a win is how I see this one panning out.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended bets

2 pts Back Wolves/Under 3.5 Goals in the Match Odds and Over/Under 3.5 Goals market at 3.185/40

2020/21 P/L

Staked: 37 pts Returned: 28.86 pts P/L: -8.14 pts

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