West Ham v Tottenham: Goals at a premium in London derby

It's not been the best of starts for West Ham but Sunday's gritty 1-0 victory at Aston Villa has the potential to turn things around.

Hammers up and running

That element of luck was on show as Pablo Fornals' winner came via a mighty deflection, although David Moyes will have been pleased with the effort shown and, in particular, the improvement in the second half for which he ditched his five at the back, reverting to an oft-used four.

Add in their Europa Conference League play-off wins and it's actually now three victories in four for the Hammers and this fierce derby battle looks exactly the game they need to keep them bubbling.

Much has been made of West Ham's lack of goals - Sunday's at Villa Park was their first in the Premier League this season - but the underlying data is a bit more encouraging.

The difference between West Ham's actually goal tally and their expected goals (xG) figure is -2.6 and only Everton have a worse such number.

They scored plenty last season and have now added Gianluca Scamacca to their ranks so an improvement should be expected on the goal front.

Whether it comes here is open to question though.

Moyes is nothing if not pragmatic and I'd expect him to set his side up to counter Spurs' attacking threat.

Given how his back-five experiment went the other day, that may not mean packing the defence but certainly don't expect his men to be pouring forward at every opportunity.

Spurs showed at Nottingham Forest on Sunday how they can break and get numbers forward quickly when turning over the ball and West Ham will be aware of that.

Good start but Spurs a possible lay

Spurs, who are 2.0421/20 to win the game, may have picked up 10 points from 12 but they've not totally convinced so far.

Forest had good chances to equalise on Sunday, Wolves dominated them in the first half a couple of weeks ago only to end up losing 1-0, while we all know the controversy surrounding their injury-time leveller at Chelsea.

They don't have a great record in this fixture, losing the last two at the London Stadium, while looking back further, the Hammers (3.814/5) have actually won six of their last 11 at home to Spurs in the league.

Go low on goals

I think there's potential to lay the visitors here at 2.0621/20 but I believe the better bet is to head to the goals markets and play the unders.

As already discussed, West Ham will look to restrict their visitors with the aim to nick this, I'd imagine.

Given their scoring woes, it seems unlikely they'd win an open, attacking game and I like under 2.5 goals at 2.1411/10.

All four of West Ham's league games thus far have delivered on this front, as have Spurs' last two.

It has also occurred in nine of the last 14 editions of this fixture in east London so I'm happy with odds-against quotes.

Shoot for profit with West Ham pair

As ever, the sub-markets provide potential for Bet Builders and a few things catch the eye.

In the shots markets, Aaron Cresswell and Tomas Soucek both look potential value plays.

While my theory is West Ham won't be in all-out attack mode, it's worth noting only three sides have conceded more shots than Spurs across the opening four matchdays.

Given Spurs' defensive solidity, West Ham may have to let fly from distance and Cresswell (pictured) and Soucek are players who fit that bill.

Cresswell has managed 1+ shot in three of his four games so far and he has the advantage of being on free kicks around the box, while he's also a player who goes up for corners. 5/6 about him having another shot in this game looks good.

Soucek managed three shots in the last home game against Brighton, four at Forest and also landed the 2+ shots bet away to Viborg last week. 2+ at 4/6 gets the nod given his ability to shoot from distance and his aerial threat from both open and set play.

Soucek card potential

With real rivalry, at least off the pitch, between these two clubs, it's also worth perusing the card markets for this one, especially given Peter Bankes has been chosen as referee.

He was the third best for cards in the top flight last season and has already shown 14 in three games this term.

And it's that man Soucek who appeals again, although that's without seeing the prices. Sadly, this market wasn't up a time of writing.

He's been carded in three of his five previous league games against Spurs - the most cards he's picked up against any team since arriving in England.

It's also worth looking back at his derby record in the Czech Republic where he was carded in three of the eight starts he made in the Prague derby, for Slavia against Sparta.

For those looking to bump up the price, it's worth noting the Michail Antonio stat below, plus the fact that Harry Kane has four goals in his last six league games against the Hammers.

The pair are 12/5 and 11/10 respectively to score but given what I've said about the total goals in this game, I'm happy to steer clear of that market.

Opta fact

Only Carlton Cole (14) and Manuel Lanzini (13) have scored more Premier League goals for West Ham in Premier League London derbies than Michail Antonio (12) - half of these have come in 11 appearances against Tottenham, including netting once in each of his last three against them at the London Stadium.

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