Premier League Big Match Focus: How to back a 6/1 Bet Builder in Southampton v Liverpool

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Liverpool's game at Southampton will be Roberto Firmino's last for the club

In this week's Big Match Focus, Tom Victor previews Southampton v Liverpool as the Reds look to finish the season on a high...

  • Liverpool unbeaten in 10

  • Southampton's struggles under Sellés

  • Salah involved in everything


While Champions League qualification may be beyond Liverpool, Jürgen Klopp's side can still give themselves something to build on as they face relegated Southampton at St Mary's.

Last season's runners-up will end the season with an 11-game unbeaten run if they avoid defeat against the Saints. After dropping points against Aston Villa, however, the long-shot of a top four finish is a step too far.

The season will also end in disappointment for the hosts. Southampton's relegation has been a formality for some time, and they'll begin next season with a clean slate as manager Rubén Sellés departs.

Southampton's slump

If Southampton are to take anything from this game, they'll need to buck a couple of worrying trends. The first is their immediate form, with no wins in the last 12, though their only points in that period have come against teams in the top half.

The closest Sellés' team came to a win in the period was away to Arsenal, where the hosts needed a last-gasp equaliser to salvage a 3-3 draw. It was Southampton scoring late when they drew by the same scoreline at home to Spurs, while a trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United ended goalless.

There's also the recent record against Liverpool, with their last 12 meetings bringing just one victory for the team from the south coast. That came in January 2021, when Danny Ings scored the only goal of the game to hand Southampton victory against his former club.

It's no surprise then that Southampton are 13/27.50 to bow out of the Premier League with a victory on Sunday.

Reds find form on the road

The story of the first half of the season was Liverpool's away woes. The Reds won just three of their first 15 league games away from Anfield, though they did also beat Wolves away in the FA Cup as well as claiming road wins in the Champions League against Ajax and Rangers.

A win at St Mary's - available to back at 1/31.33 - might look more viable now, though, thanks to three away league wins on the spin. Those games include the two other teams sitting alongside Southampton in the relegation zone, with Leeds demolished 6-1 and Leicester handed a 3-0 beating.

The other game in that run saw Liverpool come from behind to win 2-1 at West Ham after conceding inside the first 15 minutes. Coincidentally, that's exactly what happened when Klopp's men won at Southampton in May 2022, with both games decided by a 67th-minute winner from Joël Matip.

Farewells and final days

Liverpool have a number of stars leaving this summer, with travelling fans getting a chance to say goodbye. Roberto Firmino has a chance to add to his late equaliser against Aston Villa, while James Milner may be handed minutes ahead of an anticipated move to Brighton.

If Milner features at St Mary's, it will be his 16th appearance on the final day of a Premier League season. No player has managed more, though it would bring him level with four players of yesteryear including former Liverpool favourite Jamie Carragher.

Southampton's relegation may well see a top-flight side move for James Ward-Prowse, who has a chance to bow out by evening up his home and away goal record. No player with more than 20 goals across the last three Premier League season has a lower percentage at home than the England international, with just 23% of his 26 goals coming in front of his own fans.

Southampton v Liverpool prediction

If Liverpool are to prevail, Mohamed Salah might be key, the Egyptian has been involved in more goals than any other Premier League player since the start of March, and all of the Reds' goals in May have been either scored or set up by the former Roma star.

While the hosts are sure to want something from their final game, only one of the last 20 seasons has seen the team finishing bottom of the league win on the final day. That honour went to Sheffield United, who came last in 2020-21 but will be one of the teams replacing Southampton in the top flight next term.

We're looking at the Bet Builder markets and backing the visitors. Liverpool -1 and Salah to score two or more goals can be backed at 6/17.00.

Liverpool -1 and Salah 2+ goals @

6/1

Recommended bets

Back Liverpool -1 and Salah 2+ goals @ 6/17.00

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