Given we are just one game into the Premier League season, and the expected goals (xG) metric is at it's very best with a larger sample size to work from, in the first few articles of this column I will use the backend of last season as well as what we witnessed on opening weekend to talk through hot and cold teams.
Who is HOT?
Chelsea
The European champions are the hottest team in the Premier League.
Thomas Tuchel has transformed the Blues into a serious contender in such a small time frame, but the base of their success has been in defence, with no team boasting a better expected goals against (xGA) per game figure than Chelsea since Tuchel's arrival.
The Blues averaged 0.68 xGA per game in the 19 league games under the German last season, and that continued on opening weekend, where they limited Crystal Palace to chances equating to just 0.34 xG.
Furthermore, Chelsea led the league in terms of expected points (xP) per game under Tuchel last term, with their average of 2.10 marginally better than Manchester City's 2.06.
Romelu Lukaku is now in the mix too, and he could take them to another level, starting this weekend against Arsenal.
Manchester City
Despite losing to Tottenham on opening day and many pundits and fans suggesting it was a deserved defeat, City were unfortunate to lose the game based on chances created.
Pep Guardiola's champions won the xG battle 2.41 to 1.30, creating three big chances (0.35 xG+), and the Infogol model calculates that, based on the quality of chances created in the game, Manchester City would win the match 62% of the time.
Obviously, no one is suggesting that City won't be near the top of the table again, but while branding the performance a poor one may be correct on the eye test, it is worth bearing in mind that, despite perhaps playing below their usual standard, City still created enough chances to at the very least warrant a point.
The Citizens got off to a slow start last season as well before storming to the title, and a home game against Norwich looks the perfect opportunity to bounce back in style. I fear for the Canaries on Saturday.
West Ham
David Moyes' side were excellent last season in finishing sixth, and the key to their success was very un-Moyes-like, as the Hammers played an open brand of football that saw them create plenty of opportunities.
In the second half of the season, West Ham averaged 1.78 xGF per game, and that attacking process ranked them as the fourth best attacking team over the final 19 games of the campaign - better than Manchester United (1.67).
They were consistently out-creating their opponents and winning high-scoring games as a result of playing to their attacking strengths, a trend which appears to have continued into the new season.
West Ham won 4-2 at Newcastle on Sunday, a deserved win in which they created a gameweek high 3.15 xGF, but they also allowed 1.87 xGA. They will continue to be a fun team to watch and win football matches in the process.
Who is COLD?
Crystal Palace
Obviously there has been a managerial change at Selhurst Park, with Patrick Vieira taking over from Roy Hodgson, so this was a difficult one to assess, but based on what we saw at Chelsea, not much has changed at Palace.
They operated in the same manner we would expect to see Hodgson deploy his side at a 'big six' team, and while Chelsea are one of the most difficult teams to play against, there were little positives to take into a big game with Brentford this weekend - who were refreshing in their approach.
The Eagles finished 18th in Infogol's xG table, suggesting that they deserved to be at the very least in a relegation dog-fight, and that means that unless Vieira improves their underlying process, they could be a team in the mix.
It will be interesting to see their progress under the Frenchman, especially as they have signed some exciting young players, but at this moment in time, they remain a very cold team and potentially one to oppose.
Southampton
No team in the Premier League is colder than Southampton. And that is from an actual and expected results standpoint.
They finished last season losing 15 of their last 21 league games, collecting 14 points from a possible 63, with their four wins in that time coming against relegated pair Sheffield United and Fulham, and Crystal Palace and Burnley who finished 18th and 17th respectively in Infogol's xG table.
Defensively the Saints were woeful, allowing 1.77 xGA per game in that 21-game stretch - the fourth worst defensive process in the league - while their already weak attack as been made weaker by the sale of Danny Ings.
His replacement, Adam Armstrong, did get on the scoresheet against Everton, but his goal (0.44 xG) came from a defensive lapse, and Southampton created little other than that opportunity, finishing with an xG total of 0.75.
Everton created chance after chance, netting three times from 2.19 xG, meaning it was more of the same for Southampton. Next up, a rampant Manchester United side. Another 9-0 anybody?
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