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TAA to inspire 100% record for Liverpool
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Newcastle have a tough run-in
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Man Utd are slowing down
The consensus is that Liverpool have left it too late to sneak into the top four but a perfect weekend for Jurgen Klopp has seen their odds drop to 13/8.
Newcastle United and Manchester United both lost, potentially triggering a little wobble at the last, while Liverpool made it six from six to move within touching distance of the Champions League spots.
For Man Utd and Liverpool, failure could significantly affect their rebuild this summer, meaning for the former that Erik ten Hag's debut campaign will suddenly inspire far less confidence than expected.
Failure to finish in the top four for Liverpool, meanwhile, would see the energy of their revival disrupted by the Europa League schedule.
Newcastle are ahead of schedule and would not be too badly hit by finishing fifth, but having been in such a commanding position for so long they would be bitterly disappointed to miss out.
Looking at the three clubs' respective run-ins and recent performances, Liverpool might just do it.
Liverpool's TAA-inspired rebirth
Klopp has moved Trent Alexander-Arnold into a new central midfield role when Liverpool have possession, and it could prove to be one of the most significant tactical changes of the German's career.
Already it is having a huge impact on the team, creating wild and disordered rhythms that are a reminder of those chaotic first years under Klopp before Liverpool really clicked.
That is no coincidence. Like then, Liverpool are in an embryonic stage of a rebuild and are yet to work out the kinks. Alexander-Arnold is adding a lot, both by sitting alongside Fabinho to screen against counter-attacks and playing intelligent passes and retaining his place as a dominant creative force.
He is also allowing Liverpool to add an extra forward/playmaker into the team.
In the 1-0 victory over Brentford, Klopp showed ambition in upgrading on Harvey Elliot with Cody Gakpo, fielding a number nine as one of his midfield eights. That's because, with Alexander-Arnold in the middle, those eights can spread high and wide, effectively operating like inverted wingers.
It is clearly working, yet Liverpool's unusual 2-2-6 shape is inevitably vulnerable to being counter-attacked. With so much space to cover, Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk are being dragged into uncomfortable positions, hence they still look a little shaky, while Premier League managers have immediately worked out that they can simply hit the space Alexander-Arnold has left open.
There is work to be done, then, and Klopp may soon have to accept that - like Manchester City and Arsenal - you need to use a back three if one of the full-backs moves into midfield. Still, Leicester City (a), Aston Villa (h), and Southampton (a) should not get in the way.
Leicester are looking hopelessly open, suggesting the renewed relentless waves of Liverpool attacks will outscore Dean Smith's team. Villa have slowed down significantly of late and suddenly seem too static to trouble the Liverpool back line.
Southampton, who will be already relegated by the final day, will be swept aside at Anfield.
Newcastle could falter in tricky run-in
If Liverpool win all three of their remaining games, giving them 71 points, then Newcastle will need six points (or seven, if Liverpool can overturn a seven-goal deficit in goal difference) to stay ahead in fourth. That is no longer a given, not after the 2-0 defeat to Arsenal.
Aside from the recent 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa, from which Newcastle immediately bounced back, they have made a habit this season of going on streaks of good or bad form; they went seven league games without a win in August and September and five without a win in January and February.
Are they due another downturn? Their next game is away at Leeds United, which happens to be Sam Allardyce's first match at Elland Road and a potential banana skin.
Leeds will pack the penalty area, play the percentages, and look to frustrate Newcastle with an ultra-defensive performance. It's easy to imagine a famous Big Sam win.
Brighton (h), Leicester (h), and Chelsea (a) is not particularly easy, either. Roberto de Zerbi's side could certainly take points, while Chelsea are a wildcard who could cause problems in a traditionally crazy final day. There is a window of opportunity for Liverpool.
Man Utd's goals are drying up
All of a sudden Manchester United don't look like such a certain bet for a top four finish.
They will need eight points from their final four to keep Liverpool at bay, but having scored just three goals in their last six matches in all competitions Ten Hag's team are slowing down at the worst possible moment.
Casemiro and Christian Eriksen looked tired in the 1-0 defeat to West Ham United, their second in a row. Marcus Rashford's hot streak has ended and there is no obvious answer to who will take up the mantle. Raphael Varane is still out injured. United look a lot more ordinary than they did a month ago.
They face Wolves at home next, which is not easy. Wolves beat Villa last weekend by using a flat back six, sitting deep and being very conservative in a 6-2-2 shape, and that strategy is the perfect way to slow down this fatigued and goal-shy United.
If Ten Hag's team does drop points here, they'll suddenly be under pressure to win all of their remaining three.
You would back them to do it, mind. Bournemouth (a), Chelsea (h), and Fulham (h) is a nice set of games, with nobody in there playing for anything as their respective seasons wind down. Still, there could be no room for error by then.
Liverpool might look more or less out of the running, but Newcastle and Manchester United have shown weaknesses of late. Klopp's Reds are worth a bet - before the odds drop further.