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Extra competitiveness means lower points tally to win title
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Could 85 be enough for Liverpool to win the league?
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Premier League goal rush leaves unders bettors cursing
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Ask yourself - why can't Liverpool win it?
Who will win the Premier League title is a frequently asked question. But the key thing to ponder for me is how many points will it take to win the title?
Teams are taking more points off one another in that top 10 area of the table. It's a very open league where clubs are being smart and savvy with the recruitment of managers and players in order to help compete with the big boys. The 'big-six' is probably a thing of the past now and has been for a few seasons.
Newcastle can deservedly draw 3-3 with Liverpool but then deservedly lose at Brentford. Fulham get beat 4-1 at home to Wolves but in their next home game draw with Arsenal.
With the league this competitive, a points tally of less than 90 will surely be good enough to lock in the title. A draw here and there for a title contender won't be as catastrophic as usual, so that 3-3 for Liverpool at Newcastle should be seen as a positive despite the late leveller from the Toon. Arsenal and Chelsea have lost there this season and Manchester City came away with a point.
I'm starting to come around to the idea of Liverpool winning the Premier League now.
I'm yet to see an argument that is strong enough that they'll drop away. Such theories tend to be based on gut instincts and a general hope that an exciting title race will be in store.
If Liverpool continue at their current points per game ratio of 2.5 then they're in line for 95 points this season. They'll win the title by early April if that's the case.
But they won't need 95 points this season based on the increased competitiveness between teams. If they can hit 2.2 points per game between now and the end of the season then that will yield 87 points - that, as things stand with the form of their rivals, would be enough to land the trophy.
I've banged the Arsenal drum loudly this season and my ante post portfolio relies on them winning big trophies. However, now just might be the time to back Liverpool at 1.845/6 before that price evaporates.
The Premier League goal rush is back!
Unders goal bettors: it's time to go collect your nuts, build that shelter, wrap up warm and get into hibernation mode for the winter. The Premier League won't be a profitable place for you.
I love swimming against the tide and playing the under goal line when appropriate as naturally the price is more inflated than the true probability based on the influence of public money wanting to back the excitement of goals.
Well, those punters are cashing in yet again in the Premier League. It's been a goal fest since the international break.
Over the past 39 games, the average goals per game has spiked significantly to 3.47 per game and over 2.5 goals bettors have successfully cashed in 68 per cent of games. Even the 1.5 goals line is being battered by goals in that 35 of those 39 games have seen two or more goals scored.
When games like Everton v Wolves, where the under 2.5 line screamed value a few weeks back, are seeing four goals scored then you know it's time to run scared of backing any under goal lines until we see some evidence that defences are yet again back on top.
Keep goals and both teams scoring on your radar when the prices are right.