Premier League Title Betting: Why 9/5 Arsenal will still be crowned champions

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Arteta's Arsenal should still consider themselves favourite to win the title.

Arsenal are still capable of winning the league despite their loss of momentum, thanks to an easier run-in and fixture congestion that goes in their favour...

  • Arsenal's quick starts can keep them going

  • Man City's run-in tougher than Arsenal's

  • Arsenal can win at the Etihad


Title odds swing in City's favour

As bodies slumped to the ground at the London Stadium - some prostrate and exhausted, others visibly winded with hands on hips - there was a sense of defeated fatalism in the air.

From here, after losing two-goal leads on consecutive Sundays, the momentum, and the narrative destiny, seems to be entirely with Manchester City.

The betting odds reflect as much. Arsenal have dropped to 9/5 to win the Premier League title while Man City are now odds-on at 4/9.

For a lot of people, for a lot of Arsenal fans, that was it: Bukayo Saka's missed penalty and Arsenal's collapse after their early complacency was the moment the title got away from them.

If that proves to be the case then it is worth mentioning how Pep Guardiola's team, through a mixture of dubious wealth and genius management, have changed the parameters.

Arsenal are on course to win 91 points, which would be the joint-fourth highest total ever recorded prior to Man City's first under Guardiola.

In other words, they are still acting like champions - or at least, as champions used to be before City made near-perfection the bar.

But to talk this way, to big up Arsenal's success story even if they finish second, is to let pessimism set in and we are not at that stage just yet - even if the betting markets say otherwise. Here's a look at why Arsenal can still upset the odds.

Racing into leads & newfound depth

Arsenal are not bottling these games but rather becoming overly complacent. "The purpose we needed for the third and fourth goal, I didn't see it," Mikel Arteta said after the match. This is disappointing, but it's a lot better than simple nerves or loss of momentum.

They have been 2-0 up within the first 50 minutes in each of their last five Premier League games and, with the result at Anfield a particularly challenging fixture, arguably the West Ham match was the first time they should be blamed for letting it slip.

Surely they will learn from this and push harder for the third goal in future.

The upshot being that Arsenal fans can expect their team to keep racing out of the blocks and putting teams to bed, with an added guard against complacency from this point on.

Starting with Southampton at home on Friday, we can anticipate Arsenal continuing to win and stay close to Man City; the last week has not been the sign of a team slowing down or buckling under the pressure.

This argument is bolstered by the newfound depth at Arteta's disposal. Clearly they lost control at West Ham, and yet they were notably improved once Jorginho came on to replace Thomas Partey, while Leandro Trossard remains a superb option from the bench.

Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney were huge weak points last weekend, but William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko should be back imminently.

City's fixture congestion & harder run-in

They are assisted further by Man City's fixture congestion. Assuming they hold onto a three-goal lead against Bayern Munich this week they will play a Champions League semi-final either side of a trip to Goodison Park (where Everton have already beaten Arsenal under Sean Dyche), with the second leg three or four days before City host Chelsea.

There is no doubt the Champions League will prove a distraction of sorts, leading both to some squad rotation (which does affect Man City's rhythm, despite the quality of their reserves) and tired legs for games that are trickier than they might appear on paper.

Everton were five matches unbeaten at Goodison Park under Dyche before the defeat to Fulham at the weekend, a game that is surely just a blip for them.

The Toffees are not the only side in the run-in who will park the bus against City, potentially creating some nerves - and limiting Erling Haaland - as tiredness grows.

West Ham at home is obviously a challenge these days, now that David Moyes has his team on a run of 16 points from their last 11 league games.

They are something like their old selves again. Fulham at Craven Cottage is another potentially tough challenge, while Brentford - who host City on the final day - won 2-1 at the Etihad earlier this season.

Add to that a trip to Brighton and a home game against Chelsea and Man City's run-in could present a few challenges.

Arsenal's is a bit more straightforward, with Newcastle away and two home matches against Brighton and Chelsea as bad as it gets.

Etihad head-to-head not a foregone conclusion

The other game, not yet mentioned, is of course their head-to-head next Wednesday at the Etihad. Seemingly everyone has already written Arsenal off here, with the general assumption being that even taking a point is most likely beyond them.

That is not necessarily the case. Arsenal's 3-1 loss to Man City earlier in the season came after the 1-0 at Everton and 1-1 draw with Brentford, a period during which Arsenal suddenly looked bereft in attack.

They are far more fluent now and therefore less likely to allow Man City to pull away in the final 20 minutes.

Back in January Man City won 1-0 at the Etihad in an extremely tight FA Cup game that could have gone either way - and that was with Tierney, Holding, and Eddie Nketiah in the Arsenal line-up.

It will be a very, very close game, and were Arsenal to snatch a win then all of a sudden they would be fully in the driving seat again.

Even if they draw, and even if they are just behind Man City in late May, there is a chance.

Man City traveling to Brentford on the final day feels like a serious road block that few have considered. The title race has swung towards Man City, but it is nowhere near over yet.


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