Premier League Tipsheet: Five tempting bets for Saturday from evens to 4/1

Can Javi Gracia stop the rot?

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found in the Premier League this weekend...

  • Leeds implosion will continue

  • Palace set to impress again

  • Salah and Liverpool too hot at 7/2


Fulham v Leeds (12:30) - Leeds to nowhere



Approaching half-time at home to Crystal Palace things were looking pretty good for Leeds and their new manager Javi Gracia. Ten points from 18 had lifted them out of the relegation gloom and, a goal to the good, they were on course to posting a consecutive win at Elland Road for the first time since August.

Then on the stroke of half-time Marc Guehi equalized and everything went to pot.

Leeds have shipped 11 goals in 135 minutes of football - a rate of a concession every 12.2 minutes - and surely that will have a psychological impact when they come up against a Fulham side that's buoyant and revitalized from last weekend's success at Goodison Park.

Add in that Leeds have kept just a solitary clean sheet on their travels in 2022/23 and it all points to a home win, while discipline may be a factor too.

Both teams inhabit the wrong end of the fair play table this term.

Fulham to have 5 or more shots on target and over 4.5 cards is worth a punt @

10/3

Brentford v Aston Villa (15:00) - Ceilings and clouds

Until recently, Brentford's propensity to draw games in 2023 was viewed in a positive light. Five stalemates from late January continued a terrific run of results that saw them defeated just once going all the way back to October.

But now they have to respond to three consecutive losses, so those draws take on a different hue altogether when you consider that Thomas Frank's men have won only two of their last 10.

That's not to say that they are in trouble, more that they have hit their ceiling of late. Villa, on the other hand, continue to soar, impressing more every week under Unai Emery.

Ollie Watkins is taking the lion's share of the plaudits and rightly so after firing 11 in 12, but Villa's midfield three also catches the eye, as does a notable upturn in form from Alex Moreno down the left. The Spanish full-back has contributed 1.5 key passes per 90 and has been brilliant in recent weeks.

This could be an intriguing a clash but go for a low corner count. Both teams are in the bottom six in that regard.

Backing a draw and under 10.5 corners tempts @

4/1

Crystal Palace v Everton (15:00) - A palace refurb

The best that Palace fans hoped for on seeing Roy Hodgson return to the helm was that the 75-year-old might steady a ship that was in danger of sinking. Instead, he's got the place rocking.

Bringing Eberechi Eze back into the fold has proven pivotal and the attacking midfielder has been excellent, notching three in his last two and being a constant threat. Moreover, to the surprise of many, Hodgson has gone on the offensive, in doing so rejuvenating a front three that was previously goal-shy.

In his three games in charge the Eagles have averaged nearly 10 shots per game more than they managed under Patrick Vieira.


All of which spells bad news for beleaguered Everton who look fresh out of ideas. The Toffees' last victory on the road was at Southampton in the autumn and nothing from their last two disappointing displays suggests that run will end at Selhurst Park.

Back Palace to have 16 or more shots @

11/10

Leicester v Wolves (15:00) - Generous hosts

When Leicester last kept a clean sheet in the league Erling Haaland was on a mere 18 goals, Wolves had just announced the appointment of Julen Lopetegui, and Twitter worked properly.

Since then, across 16 largely miserable games the Foxes have accrued a meagre eight points from 48, while their against column for the season is damning. In 2022/23 they have conceded 1.7 goals per 90.

Such generosity at the back is pertinent because Wolves have finally started to find the back of the net after seemingly being allergic to scoring for much of the past year.

In their opening 12 fixtures, a cluster of misfiring strikers managed just 0.4 goals per 90. In their last 12, improved as they are under Lopetegui, that's risen to 1.1. Even Diego Costa has joined the party.

For the superstitious, it's worth highlighting that the visitors have yet to score at the King Power in the Premier League in five attempts. For the more rational, all the evidence points to that sequence ending on Saturday.

Wolves and over 1.5 goals offers up

3/1

Liverpool v Nottingham Forest (15:00) - Mo problem

Liverpool's excellent home record and Forest's woeful away form are the determining factors here, and that's before we get to the visitors being winless in 10 and the Reds rediscovering their potency up front.

Jurgen Klopp's side may be in a period of transition - and have the scars to prove it - but they've only lost once at Anfield all term in the league, keeping four clean sheets in their last five outings on Merseyside.

As for Forest, their six points picked up on the road amounts to a Premier League low and furthermore a good chunk of their losses have been comprehensive. On six occasions away from the City Ground, they have conceded 3+ goals.

Mo Salah is the obvious danger to Steve Cooper's relegation strugglers, the Egyptian boasting 13 direct goal involvements in his last 12 games. Those around him have ignited and that is bringing out the best in him.

An #OddsOnThat bet on Salah to have 2 or more shots on target & assist 1 or more goals is a shout @

7/2

Recommended bets

Back a draw and under 10.5 corners for Brentford/Villa @ 5.04/1

Back Palace to have 16 or more shots @ 2.111/10

Back Wolves and over 1.5 goals @ 4.03/1

Stephen Tudor

Stephen Tudor has written extensively about football and sports betting for well over a decade.

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