Chelsea and Spurs have perfect advantage over Man Utd
Chelsea and Tottenham to both finish above Manchester United in the 2026/27 Premier League season at 10/34.33 is the type of season-long position I want on my side before the campaign gets going.
It's not a bet that needs Chelsea to win the title, Spurs to finish in the Champions League or Manchester United to collapse spectacularly.
It simply requires two clubs with genuine upside to improve on last season to finish above a United side being asked to repeat an extraordinary second half of 2025/26 while also returning to European football.
At 10/34.33, the price implies a probability of just 23%. I think the truer price should be venturing south of 2/13.00.
Who European football factor is being underestimated
Let's start with something that is obvious but often underplayed when we talk about Premier League outrights: the value of having a full midweek to prepare for a league game.
That means fewer Wednesday nights on the continent, fewer Sunday afternoon recoveries, fewer disrupted training weeks and more time on the training pitch.
For two teams with new managers, that matters enormously.
Chelsea have brought in Xabi Alonso, while Tottenham have handed Roberto De Zerbi the reins after his successful rescue act at the end of last season. Both are coaches who want to impose ideas rather than simply manage what is already there.
And this is where the time becomes an asset.
A Premier League manager with a whole week between games can coach. That distinction compounds over 38 matches.
There is a broader historical trend here, too. The traditional "big six" clubs have generally enjoyed substantial points increases in seasons without European commitments, with an average improvement of around 18.5 points.
If history repeats itself - that domestic-only football gives both clubs a significant advantage - then there is a genuine pathway for both to make significant points gains in the Premier League.
Chelsea provide perhaps the most striking examples.
They went from 50 points in 2015/16 to 93 in 2016/17, an extraordinary 43-point improvement. That season, Antonio Conte's side won the title.
Chelsea's 2022/23 campaign was a disaster by their standards: 44 points and 12th place. But the following season, without Champions League football, they climbed to 63 points. That's a 19-point improvement.
The De Zerbi factor
Tottenham are the wild card this season.
De Zerbi is simultaneously one of the most exciting and volatile managers in elite football. That volatility is part of the attraction.
But give him a full week to coach his team and you could get a very different Tottenham - one that could become very, very dangerous in the Premier League.
He arrived at Spurs with seven league games remaining and inherited a side sitting just one point above the relegation zone. He got them over the line, collecting 11 points from those seven games.
But it was what happened defensively that really caught my eye.
Across his final seven matches, Spurs allowed only 0.79 expected goals per 90 minutes.
That was the best defensive figure in the division over that period. For a team whose openness had become almost self-destructive, that is a striking change.
And now De Zerbi gets the enormous advantage of having time to coach his players. And he gets to do it while the majority of Spurs' direct rivals are dealing with European football, including Manchester United.
United are the ones to oppose at the prices
This is the crux of the bet.
Firstly, Man United's 2025/26 season was remarkable.
They finished third with 71 points after collecting just 42 the previous campaign - a 29-point improvement.
And, Michael Carrick deserves huge credit.
He came into a dysfunctional situation in January and immediately stabilised the team. United won 12 of their final 17 league matches and the tactical shift towards a back four helped unlock a side that had looked lost earlier in the campaign.
Can he do it again when the circumstances are completely different?
That's the bit I'm not convinced about. Last season Carrick was the perfect man for the moment where expectations were low and United had no European football.
The expectations have changed.
United are back in the Champions League and their fixture list gets more complicated. There will be Champions League travel, Champions League preparation, Champions League recovery.
Remember, outright markets are heavily influenced by the past. They have to be.
But this time of the season is a great spot for us as punters to asses what has changed and how can we profit from the markets inefficiencies by getting ahead of curve.
For Chelsea, the answer is Alonso and a season without Europe.
For Spurs, it's De Zerbi, defensive improvement and a season without Europe.
For United, it's Champions League football, increased expectations and the challenge of proving that Carrick's extraordinary second-half run is sustainable over 38 games.
Put all of that together and that 10/34.33 looks too big.
Back both Chelsea and Tottenham to finish above Manchester United