Premier League Tips: Leeds and Saints to pull away from trouble in Gameweek 10

Leicester to end Arsenal's unbeaten run

Leicester City v Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30

Arsenal's win at Leicester last season played its part in the Foxes' failure to secure a top-four finish, but Brendan Rodgers' side have been in good form of late after a difficult start to the season. Rodgers' men have averaged 2.20 xGF per game across their last three, including four-goal returns against Spartak Moscow and Manchester United, and Infogol gives them a narrow edge over an Arsenal side who have found some magic in front of goal themselves of late.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2 or the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Burnley to hold Brentford at Turf Moor

Burnley v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00

Brentford travel north without goalkeeper David Raya, who will be out for some time through injury, and this could present a challenge against a Burnley side still looking for their first league win of the season. The two teams are meeting for the first time since 2016, when Sean Dyche's side won at Griffin Park en route to winning the Championship, but Infogol's model has nothing to choose between the sides this time around.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.006/1

Liverpool to keep up impressive form at home to Brighton

Liverpool v Brighton
Saturday, 15:00

Liverpool's 2.93 xGF average should worry the entire Premier League, as should the 15 goals they have scored across their last four games in the competition. Brighton won at Anfield last season, with Steven Alzate's winner no less than they deserved after a very impressive display, but the hosts will feel capable of revenge against a team whose fifth-place berth in the table flatters them a little.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 8.808/1

City to end Palace's run of draws

Manchester City v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00

Palace have been better than their 15th place suggests, but last week's match against Newcastle emphasised their trouble converting dominance into results. Patrick Vieira's side have been far worse away than at home, averaging 2.03 xGA, and the manager may well be worried about facing aside who recorded a 4-0 win in the corresponding game last season and are looking frightening going forward of late.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 7.206/1

Away win to keep Chelsea top

Newcastle United v Chelsea
Saturday, 15:00

Chelsea's unbeaten away record betrays some decidedly ordinary xG numbers, suggesting they may need to improve to maintain their position at the summit. A trip to winless Newcastle isn't the sort of game which ought to worry the Blues, though, with no team averaging more home xGA than the Magpies' 2.38, and Infogol expects interim boss Graeme Jones to continue waiting for a maiden victory.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Southampton narrow favourites to pick up first away win

Watford v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00

Watford's 3.48 xGF return at Everton represented their best single-game return since returning to the Premier League, but it remains to be seen whether we'll see that version of the Hornets on Saturday as opposed to the one flattened by Liverpool a week earlier. Southampton have picked things up of late, and deserve to be higher than 15th, and Infogol gives them a slight edge to leapfrog their opponents with an away win.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2 or the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Man Utd to earn crucial win on the road

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United
Saturday, 17:30

Manchester United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær is under significant pressure after last week's defeat to Liverpool, with reports suggesting he has three games to save his job. The trip to Tottenham is one of the more winnable ties, with Nuno's side looking flat in front of goal last weekend, and Infogol's model backs the visitors to get the better of a team who they beat 3-1 in north London towards the end of last season.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Leeds to break away duck at Norwich

Norwich City v Leeds United
Sunday, 14:00

Leeds will hope the return of Kalvin Phillips is a sign that their injury crisis is abating, and there's a chance for another uptick on Sunday as the Whites travel to Norwich. The home side capitulated at Chelsea last weekend, and are still after a first league win of the season, and Infogol backs that trend to continue with the away side holding a 46% chance of victory against opponents averaging a league-low 0.86 xGF per game.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2 or the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

West Ham to keep hold of top-four spot

Aston Villa v West Ham United
Sunday, 16:30

West Ham have shown some defensive improvement of late, averaging just 1.06 xGA across their last six games in the league and Europa League, with a spot in the top four their reward. The Hammers impressed in the corresponding game last season, and are backed by Infogol's model to secure a similar result against a Villa side who looked defensively shaky last time out, even if Jesse Lingard is no longer in east London after inspiring that victory.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.6013/2 or the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Wolves to leapfrog Everton with home win

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton
Monday, 20:00

Wolves came desperately close to ending the last gameweek in the top half, only for Rodrigo to claim a late equaliser for Leeds from the penalty spot. Victory on Monday could send Bruno Lage's team closer to the position their performances deserve, though, and opponents Everton have shown defensive frailties which should worry Rafa Benitez against a home side averaging 1.68 xGF this season and showing good resilience to bounce back from a tough start to the campaign.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1