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Arsenal and Man City in race for title
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Title race twists are chance for bettors
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Simple steps to profit
The English Premier League is one of the most competitive football divisions in the world and many people consider it to be the greatest.
The title race is often intense and goes down to the wire, so what does it take to win?
In January, it can be difficult to predict exactly how many points a team will need to win the title. Historically, the team that is top of the league at the halfway point of the season (around January) has gone on to win the title in over 50% of seasons.
It is important to note that while being top of the league in January is a good indicator of a team's title-winning potential, it is by no means a guarantee.
Race often decided by one or two results
There have been many instances of teams that have led the league in January only to falter in the second half of the season and miss out on the title.
Most Premier League titles are won by about eight points. But if you remove the seasons where there was a runaway winner that narrows to just six points.
The difference between winning and losing the league can be just a couple of wins.
Profit every time a team slips up
A small gap between winner and runner-up means that when a title contender loses this has a significant impact on their title odds.
Last weekend Arsenal were odds-on to win the title but suffered a shock defeat to Everton (although the Betting.Betfair match previewer did anticipate that it would not be straightforward for Mikel Arteta's men).
This meant Arsenal's main title rivals Man City moved into odds-on to retain their Premier League crown. Arsenal fans' miseries were soon forgotten, though, when Man City lost to Spurs thanks to Harry Kane's goal and Arsenal went back to odds on for the title.
Simple step to title race profit
How can you profit from this type of activity on the Betfair Exchange? There is a remarkably simple way to profit this.
The key to this strategy is that if you can lay two selections in any market at odds-on, you will make money. Yes, it's that simple.
Better than that, because of TV coverage, a lot of matches don't start at the same time. So you can take a position based on matches that have yet to be played.
Last weekend, we could have laid Arsenal at odds-on before the Everton game. If the Gunners had won their odds wouldn't have moved that much as Man City were playing the next day. But because Arsenal lost, we could have laid Man City at odds-on and that would have completed the trade.
The simple rule of thumb is if you can lay 'two at two' you will break even. Laying two selections in a market at less than 2.01/1 moves you into profit. It really is that simple.
Profiting from a bad run
It's also possible to profit from a much broader change in odds during a season. One of my favourite trades, is to wait at the start of the season to see who establishes themselves as clear title contenders and then lay them.
This strategy can make a fool of you quite easily, as you could lay a team that performs consistently well. But over time it works very well.
Last season, there was only a one-point gap between winner and runners up, and Liverpool's odds hit a low of 1.68/13 during the season.
The two years prior to that saw Premier League title race winning margins of 12 and 18 points, but the runners up still traded at 1.774/5 and 1.384/11 respectively.
Key points for title race success
The general rule of thumb is that winning titles is exceptionally hard and even the best teams will go through 'soft' patches.
Early in the season this gives you the opportunity to get a good value lay order on the initial favourite for the title, and later in the season the chance to benefit from a bad run by laying at very low odds.
If the title race is close, even individual games will affect title odds, and you can benefit from this by taking advantage of matches played on different days or times.