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Leeds to beat Newcastle
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Forest can get points at Chelsea
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Brighton can end Arsenal's title challenge
Big Sam to block Guimaraes
Leeds v Newcastle
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Newcastle United have an exceptional record against bottom-half clubs: nobody outside the top eight has beaten them, and since October only four of the bottom 12 have even taken points. However, Bruno Guimaraes struggled for form in the 2-0 defeat to Arsenal and, with Leeds United in ultra-defensive mode, that could make the difference at Elland Road.
Sam Allardyce will see this as perhaps their best chance left for three points. Leeds will sit very deep and look to squeeze play into the centre of the field, just as they did at Manchester City, but the difference this time is that they will have worked on how to stop space from opening up on the edge of the box - where Ilkay Gundogan struck twice last weekend.
What's more, Newcastle lack creativity out wide at the moment, while Leeds' ability to crowd out the middle should stop Guimaraes from getting on the ball in space. That means nobody to distribute through the lines, and, possibly, a repeat of the conservative and Guimaraes-centric tactics that saw Aston Villa win 3-0 against Newcastle.
Forest's front three can confuse Chelsea
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
Saturday, 15:00
Chelsea might have beaten Bournemouth last weekend but that was an anomalous result, with little to learn from two late goals at Dean Court. Consequently we can expect another confused performance at Stamford Bridge in which Chelsea's midfield will push too expansively to cope with opposition counter-attacks, as we have seen throughout Frank Lampard's reign so far.
Forest, by contrast, are playing their best football of the season thanks to the interplay between Morgan Gibbs-White, Brennan Johnson, and Taiwo Awoyini. They stay close together in a narrow front three and are generally released from defensive duties, meaning they are already in advanced positions when Forest win possession, ready to counter at speed as a trio.
Chelsea are far too chaotic - standing in random places, with no connections between players - to recompress in transitional moments, hence why they keep being caught out. What's more, with two advancing full-backs they could be left defending a three-on-two when the in-form Forest attack begins to build up steam.
McNeil & Iwobi could be in luck
Everton v Man City
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
This is the perfect time for Everton to face Manchester City and the worst possible moment for Pep Guardiola. His players will be tired after the midweek game against Real Madrid, when no substitutions were made, and therefore some awkward squad rotation might be needed, while Everton are buoyed after a 5-1 victory over a Brighton team that were counter-attacked repeatedly.
Man City happen to play in a very similar way, holding a high defensive line and looking to dominate possession, which is why Sean Dyche will feel confident he can deploy very similar tactics at Goodison Park and again break effectively. Alex Iwobi and Dwight McNeil, as at Brighton, will split wide to receive longer forward passes, aiming to out-run a Man City back three that might contain a couple of fringe players.
Erling Haaland tends not to perform as well against teams that sit as deep as Dyche's Everton, whose height in the penalty area means they can afford to sit particularly narrow and block off the routes through Kevin de Bruyne. Assuming Everton start well and, unlike Allardyce, use their forwards to surround Rodri or Ilkay Gundogan at the base of the Man City midfield, then we could see one of the shock results of the season. Either way, City won't be scoring freely.
De Zerbi tactics to swarm Jorginho
Arsenal v Brighton
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Brighton's unique tactical philosophy under Roberto de Zerbi is tailor-made for a game like this. Arsenal's high pressing is exactly what Brighton want, and after drawing them in with risky passing out from the back Brighton will then look to suddenly change tempo with long vertical passes into the forwards. They should, in the process, expose Arsenal's main weakness.
Jorginho was crucial to Arsenal's 2-0 win last weekend, adding control against the Newcastle press as he replaced the under-performing Thomas Partey, but he may be a liability on Sunday. Brighton's shape-shifting formation has at least five players occupy the central column of the pitch and, after Jorginho's team-mates push onto Brighton's defenders, big spaces should open up around Jorginho for Alexis Mac Allister, Pascal Gross, and Moises Caicedo to dominate.
Jorginho is not as good defensively as Partey but Mikel Arteta cannot afford to put Partey back into the team. Worse still for the hosts, Brighton are particularly good at racing out of the blocks and therefore could capitalise on Arsenal's usual wobbliness, which we saw again in a chaotic first 15 against Newcastle United that nearly led to a Jacob Murphy goal. If Brighton start fast, they can overwhelm Jorginho and take three points in an entertaining game.
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