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Mitrovic sale plus woeful data leaves Fulham in trouble
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Back Wolves to beat lifeless Everton on Saturday
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Cherries set piece issues open up profitable possibilities
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Fulham set for a season of struggle
You might be able to run from defying expected goals data but you can't hide from it over a longer period. Football is such a fine margin sport where the underlying numbers do eventually bore out into hard result outcomes.
Fulham's process based on the performance data had them as relegation contenders for much of last season. That's where I'm expecting them to be this campaign.
At one stage the Cottagers were being talked about as potential Europa League contenders in sixth yet had the worst expected goals against record of any Premier League side, meaning they were shipping high quality chances but either poor finishing or some exceptional goalkeeping from Bernd Leno was keeping the wolf from the door.
They ended the season with the third worst expected goals against record (65.56) whilst their expected points (a calculation of quality of chances created and conceded morphed into points) - had them overperforming by 11 points.
They managed to give us data boys one more kick in the special place on the opening day when having the audacity to get battered on the expected goals output in their fortunate 1-0 win over Everton (2.73 vs 1.50).
But a regression is coming - and it may have started at the weekend in that 3-0 thumping by Brentford where news also broke of the impending departure of Aleksander Mitrovic to Saudi Arabia.
That's 57 goals from the last two seasons and a hugely influential character around the club gone in one transfer - a irreplaceable loss, you could argue.
With fixtures away at Arsenal and Manchester City before the international break, I think now is the time to jump on the 4.84/1 offered up on the Exchange for their relegation with a view of trading out.
Follow the money: Back Wolves at Everton
Just two matches in and the doom is already circling around Sean Dyche. Crumbled at Villa Park, bottom of the league already. Everton fans must be sick of the sight of some of those players. Infuriated, even.
Things may get worse before getting better, too. With no financial muscle or shrewd decision makers working behind the scenes, Everton are having to march on with an under strengthened and under qualified squad.
Dyche will have to select a team to beat Wolves at home on Saturday possibly without injured trio Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi - three influential figures that carry genuine ability to make a mark at Premier League level.
Goodison Park will be expecting a reaction against Wolves - a side that have, like Everton, lost their two opening matches. But hope springs eternal looking at Wolves' expected goals tally of 4.48 - a hefty figure when factoring in the level of opposition against Manchester United and Brighton. Surely one goal will drop soon. One should do it vs this Everton mob.
This encounter will be a huge step down in class for Wolves and although the price on the draw no bet market has moved significantly since the whistle blew at Villa Park, the 11/102.11 is hard to ignore.
Brittle Bournemouth don't do the basics
Bournemouth boss Andoni Iraola is a highly regarded coach with attacking intensity at the forefront of his ideas. He is spending hours upon hours out on the grass getting that ethos over to his new players. However, working on defending set pieces seems to have slipped his mind.
Bournemouth conceded 21 goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) last season - the most of any team. They are crying out for some help. And the early signs for them tightening up that record are not positive.
Iraola's Rayo Vallecano side also conceded 23 goals from corners and free-kicks in his last two seasons in charge of the club - again, the worst record of any side. This suggests to me he doesn't spend too much time worrying about being organised from defensive set pieces situations - and Liverpool exposed that on Saturday.
Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahim Konate had three shots between them from inside the box via set pieces with Van Dijk looping a header off the woodwork. It took Bournemouth's tally to 1.04 worth of expected goals already conceded from set piece situations this season - the highest in the Premier League.
Next up for them is Tottenham on Saturday lunchtime, who already have a set piece goal to their name this season through Cristian Romero and a maestro of a deliverer in James Maddison. There will be plenty of profitable paths to explore when the market forms.