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Arsenal backed at a 110.0109/1 high in the summer
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Guardiola's Man City haven't been bigger than 3.55/2
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Gunners first hit odds-on in January, matched at a 1.511/2 low
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City 1.271/4 to win the title before hosting Arsenal
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Mikel Arteta's side 4.77/2 their highest price since November
Story of the season so far
Arsenal travel to Manchester City on Wednesday top of the Premier League table.
Taken out of context, if you had offered that sentence to any Arsenal fan at the end of last season, they would have snapped your hand off.
25 days into the penultimate month of the season and your team is top of the tree? Well, it all sounds pretty perfect.
However.
Context means everything. Arsenal's run of three straight draws means they lead the way by five points, but have also played two games more than the side in second.
It doesn't help when the side chasing you down is but Pep Guardiola's Manchester City winning machine. Throw that Arsenal match at the Etihad on Wednesday into the mix, and you come out with a season defining week of Premier League football.
Looking back through the prices of either side though tells us one thing; Arsenal were never meant to be in this title race.
Huge credit must go to Mikel Arteta's young side to still be in with a shout with only six games left, but has City's relentless pursuit finally broken the Gunners down?
Let's revisit the differing odds, price changes and market movement from the Betfair Exchange to tell a story of a fantastic Premier League title race.
What odds were the sides in the summer?
Arsenal were matched at a high of 90.089/1 back in June 2022 to win this season's Premier League title. When you compare that to Man City, who on the very same day were matched at 1.674/6, you can already see the huge gap between the two sides.
It was probably fair enough. Arsenal finished 5th in the Premier League last season, some 24 points behind eventual winners Manchester City.
There really was a huge gap.
Both sides then won 2-0 on the opening weekend of the Premier League season though and as Arsenal were matched at 29.028/1 (or a 3.4% chance of winning the title), Manchester City, with two goals from Erling Haaland, shortened even further to 1.594/7 or 62.8% chance - still with 37 games to go.
What were the odds at Christmas?
On Christmas Day, Arsenal were where they are right now - five points clear of Manchester City. However, they had played the same number of games (14) and conceded fewer goals (11 vs City's 14).
They were on the back of a four-game winning run in the Premier League either side of the World Cup break, and their odds of winning the title had shortened to 3.8514/5 on the Betfair Exchange (or a 26% chance).
Manchester City, meanwhile, had lost their most recent league match before the World Cup break (1-2 v Brentford) with their hopes of retaining the title dropping from 78% to 64% - now 1.558/15 for the top-flight crown.
Teams top at Christmas tend to go on and win the division, and when Arsenal beat Brighton 4-2 at New Years Eve - and City dropped points at home to Everton - Arsenal became their shortest price of the campaign to date - 2.466/4.
City remained odds-on at 1.910/11 but the percentage split was now just 52% - 40% in Guardiola's favour.
Arsenal hit odds-on for the first time
We had to wait until mid-January for Arsenal's chances of winning the league becoming greater than 50%.
On what was coined derby day weekend, the Gunners beat rivals Spurs 2-0 away from home to really assert their place at the top of the league. This result came 24 hours after Man City had lost at Old Trafford thanks to a hugely contentious VAR decision.
That six point swing over the weekend left Arsenal eight points clear of Man City and their odds on the Exchange to win the Premier League were now 1.875/6. Guardiola's Man City were matched at 2.568/5 on the day Arsenal won at Tottenham, leaving them with a 39% chance.
This would end up being City's second longest price of the season - hitting a high of 3.5551/20 a couple of weeks later - before the momentum started to swing once more.
City back to odds-on favourites
Over the next 10 weeks or so, the two sides would alternate as favourites for the title as both sides shown signs of inconsistency.
Arsenal hit a three-game winless run in early February, with one of those defeats coming at home to Manchester City. Mikel Atreta's men were already second favourites at 2.285/4 following a draw with Brentford before that game, whilst despite beating Arsenal, City then dropped points in their next match v Nottingham Forest.
However, they maintained their favourites tag having being matched at 2.01/1. City now had an exactly 50% chance of winning the Premier League.
Arsenal hit a low of 1.695/7 exactly a month later following a six-game winning run before the international break, with punters now giving them a 59% chance of glory.
However, their current run of three straight draws before the crunch game at the Etihad has shifted the odds dramatically, with the Gunners matched as high as 4.67/2 - their highest price since before the World Cup break. This gives Arsenal just a 21% chance of maintaining their lead of City come the end of May.
Pep Guardiola's side are used to the pressures of the title run in, proven in their recent results.
Man City head into the Arsenal game with 11 wins in their last 12 in all competitions to put the title back in their own hands. Beat Arsenal at the Etihad, and they will be just two points behind with two games in hand.
They have recently being matched at their seasonal low of 1.21/5 to give them a 80% chance of winning the Premier League title.
Have Arsenal blown it? Is it now City's to lose? Does anyone believe Arteta's side can avoid defeat at the Etihad and go on to win Arsenal's first title since 2004?
Head over to the Betfair Exchange to find out what happens to the prices following the match on Wednesday.