Premier League Tips: Chelsea and Man Utd to struggle in 44/1 weekend acca

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Chelsea face a difficult test against Villa

The Premier League is back this weekend so Alex Keble picks four key battles and says that Villa can beat Chelsea while Spurs and Man Utd struggle. First up, though, expect goals at the Etihad...


Expect another classic game of carnage

Man City v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Although Manchester City have been scoring freely they have been slightly fortunate, with fast counter-attacking Newcastle United and Crystal Palace missing big chances in games they could easily have drawn or won.

This should give encouragement to Liverpool to go full pelt at the Etihad, as they have done in recent matches thanks to the burgeoning partnership between their front three.

City don't look defensively assured without Joao Cancelo. Their 3-2 defensive shape, with a full-back dropping into midfield, only functions with a special player like Cancelo or Oleksandr Zinchenko flitting between dual roles, and at the moment it means big spaces on the touchline for opposition wingers.

Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez, splitting wide and waiting to be hit with early long balls, can terrorise Man City's defence.

But doing so will stretch the game and, with Stefan Bajcetic out injured, Liverpool will be back to that elongated shape with massive spaces appearing between the lines.

With a tired midfield unable to press to back up the forwards, Liverpool are too sloppy here for the talent of Rodri and Kevin de Bruyne who can release Erling Haaland onto the error-prone Virgil van Dijk. Expect goals at both ends.

Back over 3.5 goals @

13/8

Emery transitions to stunt Chelsea

Chelsea v Aston Villa
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Talk of a revival under Graham Potter has been premature. Across their last three matches Chelsea were out-shot 17-12 by Leicester City, held 39% possession against Borussia Dortmund, and drew 2-2 with Everton.

The Blues still look sluggish on the ball and too sideways, lacking progressive passing options in Potter's 3-4-3, with Joao Felix's brilliance the main reason for the improved results.

But even Felix could get stumped on Saturday by the resurgent Aston Villa, who play exactly the kind of football that exposes Potter teams.

Unai Emery will instruct his players to sit back in a 4-4-2 and compress space in the middle of the pitch, likely cutting off the supply line from Enzo Fernandes to Felix and slowing Chelsea to a stop - as Southampton did in a 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge.

Then, countering via carefully built passages of possession that lure Chelsea into pressing too high, Villa's midfield pair Douglas Luiz and John McGinn can release Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins to attack on the outside of the Chelsea back three.

Villa are the Premier League's form team and ideally set up to play as under-dogs. They can steal three points on Saturday.

Back Aston Villa double chance @

6/5

Casemiro absence will let Isak shine

Newcastle v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

This should be a very tight game between two sides who give nothing away.

Man Utd and Newcastle have both built their success this season on a compact defence that doesn't push up particularly high or press in dangerous or exposing ways, which should lead to a congested match with few goals.

In these kinds of games we look for individual battles, head-to-heads that could break up the space.

Casemiro's suspension considerably weakens the Manchester United midfield. They survived a rocky FA Cup tie against Fulham, thanks to the Cottagers' three red cards. But Marcel Sabitzer and Fred have previously struggled together, most notably in the 2-2 draw with Leeds when they made a passive and sideways midfield partnership.

This could happen again, especially with Alexander Isak excelling up front for Newcastle. His ability to drop intelligently between the lines has given Newcastle greater intent in possession and, without Casemiro to spot the danger, Newcastle's new number nine can get on the ball on the half-turn and drive the hosts forward.

It is this mismatch that gives Eddie Howe's team a slight advantage in what ought to be a low-scoring game.

Back Newcastle @

13/10

Dyche will stifle Stellini's continuity

Everton v Tottenham
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Cristian Stellini has taken charge of Tottenham until the end of the season which means that, although the dark clouds have lifted from the dressing room, the same slow, pragmatic, defensive football will drag on. Stellini could hardly have asked for a worse game to start his caretaker tenure.

Sean Dyche's 4-5-1 follows all the principles of his old Burnley team. The basic idea is defensive sturdiness, with long balls pumped up in the hope of second balls dropping in the opposition half, at which point Everton's three-man midfield tries to shift the ball out to a direct winger as quickly as possible.

Tottenham will be forced to hold lots of possession but will not know what to do with it, while aside from Oliver Skipp they will lack the aggression in the middle needed to cope with the direct counters.

Everton don't create much, yet at Goodison Park they will be able to win the set-pieces required to get the crowd up and pepper the Tottenham goal. As energetic hosts meet downcast visitors, Dyche has the chance to secure a vital three points.

Back Everton @

12/5

Back the Acca @

44/1

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