-
Bournemouth sit bottom and are just not good enough
-
Palace to keep falling with one win in 14
-
Southampton are too inexperienced at 4/9 to be relegated
Premier League table taking shape
The Premier League table has settled into its final pattern. A chasm of seven points has opened up between Aston Villa in 11th and Crystal Palace in 12th, enough to put the odds of Unai Emery's side going down at a remarkable 500/1.
The league has split in two, and we can say with certainty it will be three from nine who drop out of the top flight.
Those nine clubs are separated by just six points, providing us with one of the largest relegation battles in recent years - and creating some attractive betting odds on some of the outsiders who are close to the foot of the table despite appearing to reside in the middle.
Here's a look at the nine clubs who could go down, in alphabetical order:
Bournemouth (1/3) aren't good enough
Gary O'Neil is fighting admirably but there is a basic problem here that cannot be avoided: Bournemouth have the worst squad and the least experienced manager.
Scott Parker should not have so publically moaned about his situation back in August but there was truth to what he said, and despite O'Neil's move towards a more conservative style of defensive football, Bournemouth are unlikely to scrape together enough points.
Their only wins this season have been against fellow relegation candidates who happened to enter the fixture in particularly poor form.
That is unlikely to occur enough times over the next two months for O'Neill to collect four or five more wins.
They have conceded 51 goals, more than anyone else, and their top scorer is Philip Billing with five. Surely they won't escape.
Crystal Palace (6/1) are in real trouble
The greatest value is to be found here. Patrick Vieira's Palace are on the verge of a full-scale collapse, without a win in 2023 and on a run of just one victory from the previous 14.
They are a classic case of a club whose early season points created a false narrative of Palace as a mid-table side.
Palace might need 11 or 12 points from their final 13 matches, which would require a considerable improvement on their return since December.
With Wilfried Zaha struggling for form as his contract runs down and, crucially, without Conor Gallagher to lead the midfield, Vieira's tactical ideas just aren't working.
Last season Palace were a hard-tackling team who counter-attacked well, but the loss of Gallagher and downturn from Zaha has removed both of these elements.
Most pertinently of all, Vieira is unlikely to be sacked and, waiting for improvements that might not come, Palace are in that dangerous position of hesitating until it's too late.
Everton's (10/11) home form will save them
Fears are growing that Sean Dyche won't be able to inspire the turnaround many anticipated upon his appointment but there are mitigating factors at play.
The 2-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa was an anomaly because Emery deploys the kind of deep counter-attacking formation that deny Dyche his own tactical cautiousness. Everton have won both of their other matches at Goodison Park under new management.
That is why Dominic Calvert-Lewin's injury is not necessarily such a big problem, even if historically Dyche has required a powerful target man for his long-ball football to work.
Demarai Gray was effective in that role in the 2-2 draw at Nottingham Forest, a match that proved Everton still have some firepower. They will get the gritty home wins needed to steer clear.
Leeds United (8/5) stabilised by Gracia
Javi Gracia is a smart manager who will continue the Leeds model of hard pressing but without the mania that hung over Elland Road under Jesse Marsch.
Along with his Premier League experience and calm demeanour that gives Leeds a welcome boost in their battle against the drop, and with some impressive attacking players Gracia's defensive sturdiness could be enough.
We have already seen his impact in the 1-0 win over Southampton and 1-0 defeat to Chelsea. The new Leeds will not concede many, sitting in a deeper system but still working very hard to press the opposition.
When counter-attacking opportunities arise, Wilfried Gnonto and Brenden Aaronson can help complete another escape. It will be very tight and Leeds are among the worst three or four, but with Gracia stabilising things they should just about have enough.
Leicester City (5/1) will be rescued by Maddison
Brendan Rodgers should have left Leicester a while ago. That much is clear, and the same can be said for a lot of the players still roaming about, unable to focus and wondering about their next career move.
What was once Leicester's great strength - attacking quickly in the transition - is now their great weakness as opponents consistently pour through the middle unchallenged.
Joel Ward and Daniel Amartey are not good enough, while in central midfield Wilfried Ndidi has looked brittle alongside a disinterested Youri Tielemans.
The spine is brittle and the poor form will continue, yet with James Maddison in the team Leicester genuinely are too good to go down. Maddison, together with Harvey Barnes, will surely provide enough to get Leicester the wins they need.
Nottingham Forest (9/5) will keep winning at home
Steve Cooper is the magic element that should keep Forest afloat. He has created a system that, at home at least, is just about defensively solid enough while deploying the aesthetic possession football that rouses the crowd.
They provide plenty of chances for Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson to combine in the final third and cause any opponents an issue.
The interplay between these two is single-handedly winning Forest points at home, and despite the relative low quality of Cooper's team it feels as though he will masterminded a few more of those spirited 1-0 wins.
The only danger is that Cooper's central midfield lacks the same experience and technical ability seen elsewhere in the side, hence the terrible away form, but as long as teams keep fearing the City Ground Forest will have enough - just.
Southampton (4/9) lack the experience required
The third side tipped to go down here are Southampton, who despite winning two of their last three matches are woefully short on talent in defence, midfield, and attack.
Nathan Jones made numerous errors and is to blame for his downfall yet there is a reason why things went sour so quickly; Saints have badly underinvested in the squad and look too young for the battle ahead.
They recorded a lower xG than Leicester City and Chelsea despite winning those games, which is warning enough, but much worse they have not managed to find a new manager, giving Ruben Selles the job until the end of the season.
It would be pretty miraculous if a caretaker - and the third manager of the campaign - could do better than his two predecessors.
West Ham (9/2) are coming together
David Moyes is in a desperate position following the 4-0 defeat to Brighton at the weekend and he may well lose his job before the season is out.
Either way, West Ham have the best squad among the bottom nine in the Premier League and, with so many others floundering, it would take something truly unprecedented for West Ham to find themselves in the bottom three.
Even during this sticky patch they have collected eight points from the last five, enough to get them above 40 if they carry on in the same trajectory.
Lucas Paqueta is finding his feet in central midfield, Danny Ings has started scoring, and Jarrod Bowen is returning to something like his best self. It won't be pretty, but West Ham will get there.
Wolves (15/2) should finish 11th
The only outlier in this list is Wolverhampton Wanderers, a club transformed by Julen Lopetegui and capable of closing the gap to the top half.
They are 11th in the league table since Lopetegui took charge at the start of November, winning 17 points from 13 matches.
Recent home wins against Tottenham and Liverpool, both to nil, showed that Lopetegui's patient possession football from a relatively safe midblock is slowing matches down and stabilising a club that was in free-fall under Bruno Lage.
Lopetegui looked like a coup when he joined, and so it has proved.