- Premier Leauge heads into gameweek 12
- Using xG stats, Sporting Life-Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe tells us who is hot and who is cold
- Spurs value at home again?
- Do Chelsea have a problem?
HOT trends?
Spurs to bounce back in home comforts
Yes, Tottenham were garbage in midweek. Yes, they face a good Newcastle side this weekend. But are they too big of a price to win the game at 2.18 on the Exchange? In my opinion, YES.
Tottenham are a completely different animal when playing at home compared to when travelling under Antonio Conte.
They have won all five at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term, averaging 2.18 xGF and 0.84 xGA per game.
Since Conte's arrival they have won 14 of 18 at home, averaging 2.38 xGF and 0.94 xGA per game, which is a process touching the levels of Manchester City and Liverpool when at home.
Newcastle will be a tough nut, but their good recent run of form has come in a kind schedule, and after a Conte rocket, I think Spurs are over-priced.
Hammers hitting their stride
West Ham are trending in a really positive direction, and should be a team to get onside over the next few weeks.
After a slow start from an attacking stand point, they have really kicked it up a notch since the last international break.
The Hammers have posted xGF totals of 2.63, 2.05 and 3.52 across their last three matches, with the first of those figures coming at Anfield in an undeserved defeat.
Defensively they had been excellent in two matches against teams that were expected to be relegation candidates (0.65 v FUL, 0.61 @ SOU), and should dominate Bournemouth on Monday.
The Cherries are the league's worst attacking team, averaging just 0.74 xGF per game, while on their travels they are shipping 2.19 xGA per game.
Monday could witness a big Hammers victory, so taking them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.02 makes plenty of appeal.
COLD trends?
False dawn at Chelsea?
Everything appears rosey at Chelsea since the appointment of Graham Potter, with the Blues unbeaten and having won three of four in the league.
But, the data combined with schedule is painting a worrying picture.
Since Potter's arrival, in the league Chelsea have ranked 11th for xGF per game (1.35), 13th for xGA per game (1.46) and 12th on expected points (xP) per game (1.33).
Those figures are worse than under Thomas Tuchel, and the schedule hasn't been exactly difficult (CRY, WOL, AVL, BRE).
That is a worry, especially ahead of the visit of a Manchester United team who have beaten three of the four 'big six' opponents they have faced already.
United themselves have been too inconsistent in attack to get on side at the Bridge, but a dearth of goals could be on the cards given both teams relative new-found defensive solidity alongside questionable attacking processes.
Under 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.02 on the Betfair Exchange, and that looks a fair price given the data around the pair.
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