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Chelsea set to go all-in for EFL Cup - take the 5/16.00
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As Roy says, Palace set for sticky period
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James Garner's breakthrough
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Chelsea clicking into gear - the EFL Cup is there for the winning
As soon as Manchester City were eliminated from the EFL Cup, my punting instincts have been itching to have a bet in the outright market now the team who have won six of the last 10 finals are out of the picture.
That picture has become a lot clearer in that regard over the past week as Chelsea are clearly the standout value at 5.95/1 on the Betfair Exchange now Mauricio Pochettino has created an exciting formula in key areas of the pitch. None more so than in midfield.
Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez and Conor Gallagher are a dynamite trio that compliment one another's game so beautifully in the heart of the engine room. Based on Chelsea's last two convincing and controlled wins over Fulham and Burnley, the team now has an excellent balance between defence and attack which stems from the midfield three who can do a bit of everything.
They could be about to catch fire in the Premier League. And be capable of winning a cup.
Pochettino will have no reason to rest his key men and upset the flow for their EFL Cup tilt due to their lack of European commitments.
Chelsea go can all-in, and that makes them dangerous, especially considering a rather straightforward home clash with Blackburn in the next round - a game they are 1/51.20 to qualify from.
It's then the quarter final where if ducking Arsenal, Liverpool and one of Manchester United and Newcastle, who play each other in the next round, the current odds available offer will surely contract. It looks a great long-term investment to keep us warm over the winter.
Listen to Roy: Palace set for sticky period
Crystal Palace have taken 30 points from 18 Premier League games since Roy Hodgson returned in March 2023 (W8 D6 L4) and have averaged 1.4 goals per game under his watch. It's a sharp increase in their attacking metrics from the football under Patrick Vieira last season where they were 12 games without a win and averaged just 0.76 goals per game.
All seems very steady and secure under Hodgson's but he sent out a warning on Saturday that perhaps a sticky spell of results is ahead. And when a manager of his experience and knowhow gives you a tip, it's wise to listen. It revolves around Palace's increasing injury list, particularly the issues with Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise, who both could still be out for six weeks.
Hodgson said after Palace's limp 0-0 attacking showing vs Nottingham Forest: "The two we want back from injury are Olise and Eze - I can't look at matters with the same degree of optimism until those two get back fit, but it'll take some time."
Eze, as gifted a footballer as you could ever imagine, had started every Premier League game under Hodgson until the weekend. And Palace's record without Eze since the start of last season does put some substance to Hodgson's fears. In nine matches where he hasn't started, Palace remain winless, scoring just five times in those matches. It's hard to see where their creativity is coming from.
Palace travel to Newcastle next after the international break then host Tottenham at Selhurst Park. A return of zero points and zero goals would not surprise me.
Shots mad Garner going unnoticed
If you are aboard the James Garner goals and shots train right now, you are chugging away to profitsville.
The Everton midfielder is playing with great confidence and freedom in an attack-minded role for Sean Dyche, which has seen his attacking numbers spike - yet the markets haven't quite caught up.
He was 7/18.00 to score at anytime on Saturday in the win over Bournemouth and his shot prices were trading around the Evens mark for two or more. Of course, he scored for the second time in three matches and kept up his serious love for shooting by registering four in the match. That's now 16 shots in his last seven starts with his two or more shots line landing in six of those matches.
Everton return after the international break with a bang as they trek across Stanley Park to face Liverpool in the 12.30pm kick off on the Saturday.
This type of underdog fixture against a superior rival will see Everton's players being priced up as no-hopers across a variety of markets like goalscorer and shot outputs. Yet, Everton arrive at their great rivals in good nick having won three of their last four matches and can produce strong attacking metrics on the road.
Since Dyche was appointed, they have averaged 13 shots per-90 away from Goodison Park - that's the sixth highest average in the Premier League over that period. It puts them above the likes of Newcastle and Aston Villa.
This will make Garner a runner across his goal and shots output when prices are available. Keep him in your thoughts.