Three games is still a small sample size, so again this week (and probably until gameweek 6), I will be leaning on last season's data for this piece.

Last week we landed winners thanks to Under 2.5 Goals in Everton v Forest and Brighton +0.25 AH at West Ham.

HOT trends?

Fortress Emirates

Arsenal playing at home are a dangerous animal.

Leicester found that out a few weeks back when they shipped 3.15 xG, and the Gunners have been excellent over a prolongued period at the Emirates.

Over their last 20 home league games, Mikel Arteta's side have averaged averaged 2.27 xGF and 1.02 xGA per game - which is bettered only by Liverpool and Manchester City.

They are full of confidence right now, and are making light work of an admittedly light schedule to start the season, which should continue this weekend as they host Fulham.

The Cottagers have started the seaosn impressively themselves, but this is a step up in class and comes away from home.

They will struggle to live with Arsenal's explosive front line, so ARSENAL -1.5 ASIAN HANDICAP appeals at around the 1.90 mark on the Exchange.

Bees buzzing at home

Another extremely strong home team are Brentford.

The Bees ranked as the seventh best home team in the league last season based on xP and xGD, averaging 1.64 xGF and 1.07 xGA per game.

They have picked up where they left off too, winning 4-0 against Manchester United in their only home game of the new 22/23 season so far.

Everton are the visitors on Saturday, and their away numbers do warrant a spot in the COLD section, but that department is already stacked, so I'll touch on them here.

The Toffees collected just four points from a possible 27 away from home under Frank Lampard, with only relegated Norwich and Watford accumulating fewer xP on their travels.

Lampard's troops have lost their only away game of the new campaign, shipping 2.37 xGA, so a BRENTFORD WIN on Saturday looks a solid proposition at 2.1 on the Exchange.

COLD trends?

Brighton's underperformance at Amex

Brighton are a brilliant team, Graham Potter is a brilliant coach, and if they sorted their home form out, the Seagulls would be a European contender.

Under Potter, Brighton have played 39 home games and won just nine. They have won the xG battle 27 times in that span, so have out-created their opponents in 69% of home games since Potter's arrival.

Not taking chances has been the main reason for this underperformance, though we would have expected some reversion to the mean by now - or it could be around the corner.

Across those 39 home league games, the Seagulls have racked up chances equating to 65.7 xGF (average of 1.68 per game), yet have only hit the net 41 times.

That is an underperfomance of nearly 25 goals.

Based on Infogol calculations, there was just a 0.03% chance of Brighton scoring 41 times from the chances created. They had a greater chance (0.1%) of scoring exactly 90.

There is misfortune here, but the size of the sample suggests there is something bigger at play here, be it consistently poor finishing, blocking actions by opponents and/or inspired goalkeeping performances.

One thing is for sure, this is the only thing holding them back from being a serious European football contender.

Shoot-on-sight Wolves

To the eye-test, Wolves looked really good in the first half against Tottenham last weekend.

However, closer inspection would tell us that Spurs and Antonio Conte were likely never really worried, mainly due to the shot locations of Bruno Lage's side.

Across the 90 minutes, Wolves won the shot battle 20-11 but lost the xG battle 0.83-1.48.

This game was the opitome of quality over quantity, and ultimately Spurs deserved to win the game.

For perspective, every shot Wolves attempted had an average xG per shot of 0.04, which means each effort had around a 4% chance of being scored. Spurs averaged 0.13 xG per shot, so attempted 'better' shots, shots with a higher likelihood of hitting the back of the net.

In total this season, the Old Gold have racked up 3.09 xGF from 42 shots, meaning an average of 0.07 xG per shot - and this is something that desperately needs improving upon.

Cherries ripe for picking

Many of us predicted Bournemouth would struggle this season, and despite an opening day win over Aston Villa, it has been a poor start for Scott Parker's side.

Granted, they have faced Manchester City and Arsenal in their last two, but the manner of both defeats spells trouble.

The Cherries have created next to nothing over their opening trio of matches, generating a TOTAL of 1.02 xGF - an average of 0.34 per game.

If there was ever a 'get-right' game for an out-of-sorts Liverpool, it surely has to be a hosting of a toothless Bournemouth team.

**

You can download the FREE Infogol app on the IOS and Android stores.