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Slippery Jordan Ayew a foul backers dream
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Harry Toffolo expected to play left-back next vs Ayew
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Tomas Soucek carries increased goal threat
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Ayew has left-backs on toast - Toffolo next?
Jordan Ayew is a master of his craft at winning fouls. He might just be the best in the world in that discipline.
Since the start of last season, no player has won more fouls in the Premier League than Ayew (115) - he is 15 fouls clear of Bruno Guimaraes. That's a tally of 3.15 per 90 over a healthy 45 game sample size.
His ability to play opposition defenders like a fiddle was on show at Old Trafford where he won five fouls, four off Sofyan Amrabat and one off Casemiro. Both players picked up yellow cards, too, up against the slippery Palace winger.
Attention turns to next Saturday then for Nottingham Forest's trip to Selhurst Park where the left-back tasked with marking Ayew should be the firm focus of punters hoping to find a profitable angle or two in the fouls conceded or yellow card markets. In seven matches this season the opposition left-back has made 15 fouls and been carded on four occasions va Ayew.
That man on Saturday could be Harry Toffolo, who impressed from the bench in Forest's 1-1 draw with Brentford where he grabbed an assist and earned rave reviews from Steve Cooper during his post-match duties.
Toffolo has made just three Premier League starts since October 2022, so a lack of recent foul and yellow card data may mean the algorithm's used by traders could spit out some fancy early prices if he's in line start. In a bid to impress he may just play an aggressive game up against Ayew and it's worth noting he has been carded in two of his last three Premier League starts.
Soucek's goal threat going under the radar
West Ham can throw all the money they want at their new squad, but David Moyes isn't budging in terms of his unwavering faith in the talents of Tomas Soucek.
No player has started more games for West Ham than the Czech battering ram since Moyes returned to the club (122) and he's being unleashed in a very advanced role in this new look West Ham midfield where Edson Alvarez and James Ward-Prowse can comfortably take on the ball playing roles in midfield.
Soucek's presence and threat from direct play is a common weapon Moyes likes to utilise and it's been coming up trumps in recent weeks. Soucek is playing much closer to the central striker and his goal against Sheffield United was his third goal in his last four games across all competitions. Indeed, over his last 12 Premier League appearances Soucek has had 23 shots at goal to a backdrop of 2.61 worth of expected goals - a very healthy return.
It's Newcastle next for West Ham at home - a tough one - but the level of opposition should ensure a bulky price about Soucek's goalscoring prospects. Keep an eye out.
Luton turn a corner - now back their corners
The number of times I've had a chat with the man in the mirror about staying clear of corner bets is untold, yet, here I am, having a good old flirt with the corner temptation once more. It can be a volatile market with lots of variance, but I'm convinced it can be a great way to back the right style of team at an inflated price when they are fancied to play with confidence and a must-win mentality. Step forward Luton Town against Burnley on Tuesday.
As shown on Saturday in their first Premier League win over Everton, if Luton have any chance of avoiding the trap door this season, then their output from set pieces will need to be amongst the best in the league.
That was the case at Goodison Park where they created 0.78 worth of expected goals from set pieces - the avenue where both their goals came from. Rob Edwards knows his team must play for set pieces by getting the ball into the opposition territory fast to create situations to win corners down the flanks or free kicks by playing at a high tempo.
At home, their corner count is always very healthy. Last season they averaged 7.4 corners per game at Kenilworth Road - a tally only bettered by West Brom in the Championship.
The step up to the Premier League hasn't affected their output yet as they've won 19 corners across their two home games against Wolves and West Ham. Therefore, I'd be confident having a swing at Over 6.5 Luton corners at 2/13.00 in Tuesday's game at home to Burnley.