Lopetegui's possession may suit Lampard
Everton v Wolves
Monday, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Julen Lopetegui will bring a style of patient possession style of football to Wolverhampton Wanderers that is likely to slow them down and increase their creativity issues; the last thing this sideways and dull team needs is a few months of a manager meticulously coaching a positional structure built on recycling the ball. It means Everton can get off to a good restart.
Frank Lampard's tactics are by far the least sophisticated in the Premier League and, with more time, Lopetegui would out-think him. But as Wolves move to a possession-hogging 4-3-3 for his debut they will end up playing into the hands of an Everton side that are far more comfortable when on the back foot, safely absorbing pressure before launching counter-attacks.
Anthony Gordon, Demarai Gray, and Deight McNeil should be able to get into the spaces behind Wolves' full-backs, who will be expected to fly forward under the new manager, and as the visitors get used to the new system there will be more gaps through which to counter than usual. Everton can steal a win here.
Back Everton to win at 13/10
Wild swings to lead to goals
Leicester v Newcastle
Monday, 15:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video
For the most entertainment on Boxing Day, look no further than a game between two teams who ended the half-season confidently and who love to move quickly forward in the transition. Brendan Rodgers and Eddie Howe coach relatively similarly, with emphasis placed on sharp vertical passes after a turnover so that the attackers can arrive at speed in the final third.
Consequently this should be an end-to-end game, as one quick transitional attack breaks down to begin another in the opposite direction. Leicester will pummel forward via Harvey Barnes, James Maddison, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who should be able to find space between the lines and behind the attacking Newcastle full-backs.
But Boubakary Soumare can be left all alone at the base of the Leicester midfield, which is worrying with Joe Willock, Miguel Almiron, and Allan Saint-Maximin running at speed towards him. Leicester's revival was based on conceding just one goal in five games, but they didn't face anything like the speed of Newcastle's breaks.
Back over 2.5 goals at 4/5
Emery transitions to target flanks
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Monday, 17:30
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Unai Emery has won both of his Premier League matches as Aston Villa manager and things are set up nicely for him to take another big scalp on Monday evening. He brings counter-attacking football to Villa Park, with the aim being to pass out from the back and invite opposition pressure before galloping into the final third in a fine-tuned positional structure.
Liverpool have stabilised from their poor start but they look erratic in a 4-2-4 formation, which is just too unusual to avoid leaving gaps for teams to counter into. What's more, the attacking nature of the shape - with both full-backs going forward - leaves an awful lot of room, and a reactive tactician like Emery will have spent a long time working out how to exploit this.
Look out for Villa's faster players - Leon Bailey, Ollie Watkins - peeling wide to receive passes behind the Liverpool full-backs and in lots of space. Liverpool, like Manchester United before them, will play into Emery's hands, although if Jurgen Klopp's press is energetic enough it could catch Villa dallying at the back. How Mohamed Salah presses Tyrone Mings may be decisive.
Back double chance Villa/draw at evens
Wild Leeds to give City easy return
Leeds v Man City
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Manchester City players had 4,633 minutes in Qatar, far more than any other team, and there are some serious tactical flaws developing that may prove costly in 2023: Erling Haaland doesn't move enough, which is forcing a recalibration through midfield that has slowed City down and made it far easier to sit in a deep block and frustrate them. Brentford, 2-1 winners in the final game before the break, won't be the last to make that work.
But Pep Guardiola will be eased back into Premier League life by the visit to Leeds. Jesse Marsch's side are stubborn against most opponents and yet they have a habit of opening up too much and pressing too high against the big teams, which is just what City need: Kevin de Bruyne will find space to drive forward on the counter-attack and seek out Haaland's runs.
We know Haaland will be fresh and hungry for competitive football. Meanwhile Leeds have one of the worst defensive records in the division and will not compromise their principles despite the calibre of the opposition.
Back Man City to win and over 3.5 goals at 6/4