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Newcastle can win at Man City
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Chelsea to fire blanks again
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Rashford can hurt Liverpool
Saint-Maximin can exploit City narrowness
Man City v Newcastle
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Pep Guardiola's 3-2-2-3 formation still isn't really working, although you only have to look back to Man City's 3-3 draw with Newcastle in August to understand why he persists with so much control in the centre. In that game, City were drawn into an end-to-end match by the aggression of Newcastle's counters (as Guardiola said himself after the match) and with Erling Haaland at the top of the pitch this is an on-going risk.
City can avoid a repeat of that in their 3-2-2-3, but the current formation is too narrow to face a team like Newcastle. Eddie Howe generally instructs his wingers to make diagonal runs infield to join the eights and break through the middle, but against a back three Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron will stay wide. Newcastle, sitting deeper and pressing hard in the middle third, will patiently wait for chances to pierce down the wings.
Newcastle are hardly flawless, and yet they only tend to concede goals against teams willing to indulge in the kind of direct football Guardiola hates. Liverpool blew them away with longer passes over the defence towards Darwin Nunez and Marcus Rashford's runs were crucial in the EFL Cup final. Man City's slower moves will be absorbed by the visitors, who - with Alexander Isak drifting intelligently between the lines - can steal at least a point from their Etihad visit.
Back double chance Newcastle/draw at 9/5
Gracia's aggression perfect to stump Potter
Chelsea v Leeds
Saturday, 15:00
Javi Gracia is a smart appointment at Leeds. He likes to press aggressively and score goals from the counter-press and yet he does so with considerably less adventurousness than Jesse Marsch, hence why he has previously succeeded in the Premier League. His ultra-compressed off-the-ball shape, followed by sharp transitions built through overlapping full-backs, is a good model with which to face a struggling Chelsea side.
Defensively, Leeds can keep a clean sheet. Chelsea have scored just one goal in their last six games and appear to be getting further and further away thanks to Graham Potter's formation. In a 4-2-3-1, Enzo Fernandez is forced either to pass sideways to his fellow number six or find Joao Felix, whose free role means he is rarely in the right position for a progressive pass. That's why Chelsea are constantly playing horizontally, which a deeper - but just as hard-working - Leeds will enjoy seeing.
It's no surprise that Junior Firpo scored the winner against Southampton on Gracia's debut, given how important the full-backs are in providing width to his attacks. Chelsea don't leave much room, such is their control of possession, although with Reece James getting forward there is a possibility Firpo can win his individual battle on that side.
Back double chance Leeds/draw at 5/4
McNeil & Iwobi free on the flanks
Nottingham Forest v Everton
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Sean Dyche doesn't like his teams to hog possession and Steve Cooper hasn't fared well when his team have been allowed to. Nottingham Forest's season turned around once Cooper abandoned the expansive football for a more conservative style and indeed not since their 1-0 win over West Ham United in August have Forest won a match with more than 40% possession. Unfortunately for the hosts, Everton will make sure they surpass that number.
Everton's long-ball football under Dyche is predictably simple. In a 4-5-1 built upon a powerful midfield trio, the simple idea is for a big forward to get the ball out wide for the winger to dribble and then cross into the box. They will, therefore, allow Forest to pass the ball neatly around the back, encouraging a more adventurous style from Forest that generally ends badly for them.
But the main reason Everton should be favourites for this one is the difference in their respective shapes. Forest's narrow 4-3-1-2 flattens out when the team fall into a defensive shape, but with Everton playing on the break the lack of natural wide midfielders in Cooper's system could allow too much space for Dwight McNeil and Alex Iwobi to burst into crossing positions. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's injury could save Forest from defeat.
Back under 1.5 goals at 8/5
United's sharp transitions the key feature
Liverpool v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool are a puzzling team at the moment. Against Real Madrid they embraced the chaos, pushing up and onto the Spaniard's to create a high-scoring game that spun out of their control, and then for the trip to deep-lying Crystal Palace they inexplicably decided to sit off in a more reserved system. Jurgen Klopp will surely make a better decision on Sunday - and plump for the latter strategy.
Manchester United, buoyed by their EFL Cup win, should be the clear favourites if they are handed control like that. Casemiro should win the midfield battle to ensure that Liverpool have to take the long-ball option to reach their forwards, and with Darwin Nunez expected to be out with a shoulder injury that leaves Mohamed Salah as the main target. Luke Shaw, in the form of his life, can be expected to shepherd that threat.
At the other end Joel Matip and Virgil van Dijk have lost something vital in their relationship and are frequently allowing intelligent runners to get in behind them. Marcus Rashford, running off the left flank into the middle, can be found by Bruno Fernandes as the Portuguese leans to the outside of still-learning Stefan Bajcetic.