- Fulham too open on the counter
- Martinelli to lead attack on Chelsea right
- Emery tactics to work against Man Utd
Guardiola counter-press to reveal deep flaws
Man City v Fulham
Saturday, 15:00
Marco Silva's team are beginning to show the same flaws as his previous attempts at Premier League management, namely a penchant for pushing too high when in possession to reveal huge amounts of space on the flanks for counter-attacks; they have conceded the second most open-play goals this season (16), and even Joao Palhinha is beginning to look a little overwhelmed by the amount of work he has to do.
Tellingly, Fulham are also second for most long balls played against them (60 per game), sandwiched between Leeds United and Liverpool, two teams also struggling to stop counters. That's because a more direct and long approach is most enticing to teams looking to break quickly, which is something Manchester City are far more inclined to do now that they have Erling Haaland (expected to return from injury) in the side.
Pep Guardiola will be facing a deeper block than most Fulham opponents, of course, and Arsenal's 2-1 win courtesy of a late set-piece goal shows Fulham won't be pushovers. But the Man City counter-press will reveal gaps, and once the hosts take the lead Fulham will start to pour forward, revealing an essential problem that should make for a high-scoring game at the Etihad.
Back over 3.5 goals at 1.758/11
Martinelli key player to attack Chelsea right
Chelsea v Arsenal
Sunday, 12:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Graham Potter's Chelsea are beginning to look a little problematic in their 3-4-3 shape as the attacking players struggle to adapt to their new positions as wing-backs and, as in the Thomas Tuchel era, they are unable to convert possession into chances. Brighton's hard-pressing and ultra-attacking philosophy under Roberto De Zerbi seemed to push them right back, causing chaos as Brighton repeatedly went for the throat down Chelsea's right.
This is their weakest area, because Christian Pulisic looks troubled at right wing-back and is supported by Ruben Loftus-Cheek in midfield and Trevor Chalobah in defence. Essentially all of their weakest players occupy that right flank, which only increases the likelihood that Arsenal - without the injured Bukayo Saka - will look to attack predominantly down this side via the direct dribbling of Gabriel Martinelli. He will look to combine with a left-leaning Gabriel Jesus to unlock the hosts' defence.
However Arsenal haven't been pressed rigorously since the 3-1 defeat to Manchester United and it remains to be seen whether their system will collapse under pressure, especially if Potter picks Mason Mount to drop into a midfield three, potentially overwhelming Thomas Partey as Granit Xhaka roams forward. It will be an open and entertaining game, with Arsenal's advantage on Chelsea's right making them slight favourites.
Back Arsenal to win at 2.77/4
Emery's tactics should be effective
Aston Villa v Man Utd
Sunday, 14:00
Unai Emery takes charge of his first game as Aston Villa manager after leading training from Wednesday. Having had so few days to work with the players Emery, an obsessive tactician, will have tried to distil his core ideas in the simplest possible terms: sit back, pass bravely under pressure to draw the opposition forward, then counter-attack with piercing dribbles in high numbers.
This is exactly the right way to approach a Manchester United side who are expected to press high but are not yet doing it en masse, and who are expected to dominate the ball but are rarely allowed to do so. In other words, Villa should be able to lure them into a version of Erik ten Hag's Ajax football they are not yet ready for, in turn revealing spaces between the lines for the hosts to break into.
Leon Bailey, Danny Ings, Aaron Ramsey, and Emiliano Buendia stand out as the four most Emery-like Villa players. Buendia's hard work will go down well with Emery and he can make that delicate first pass to evade the press, releasing the pace and movement of Bailey and Ings. Ramsey's powerful dribbles through the middle should also be a key feature.
Back double chance Villa/Draw at 1.738/11
Klopp's 4-2-4 needs to utilise crosses
Tottenham v Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool's 4-2-4 formation is beginning to show flaws, as we might expect from such an unusual system. Leeds United were able to carve out many chances by breaking through the middle, where a two-man midfield lacks control, and it is possible that Harry Kane will be able to drop into these spaces to launch counters. However, with Heung-Min Son and Dejan Kulusevski injured, it's more likely Spurs will be pinned back and passive.
Still, it won't be easy for Liverpool to score against this low block. Antonio Conte's wing-backs should receive enough support from the outside centre-backs to stump Mohamed Salah and Harvey Elliot (Salah in particular is being pushed too wide in this system) and there obviously isn't the control in Liverpool's midfield to prise apart Conte's defensive shell. Instead, Liverpool must focus on bringing the full-backs into the fold.
The front four will likely occupy the Spurs defence, leaving Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson occasionally free to pick up the ball on the outside of the three-man Spurs midfield and look to swing crosses into the box. It is a direct route to goal that is far more open to Liverpool now they have Darwin Nunez and Roberto Firmino in the box.
Back Liverpool to win to nil at 4.57/2