Conservative Saints to stunt United
Southampton v Man Utd
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
last weekend could be a false dawn. Most analysis of that performance pointed to United's desire and work rate, but tactically it was a victory built on the old Ole Gunnar Solskjaer model; Erik ten Hag correctly abandoned his principles to sit deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter-attack. The high pressing was gone and David de Gea kicked long. It was a short-term solution.
Normal service will resume at Southampton, then. Ralph Hasenhuttl is particularly skilled at setting pressing traps for opponents building out from their own third, before dropping the system into a frustratingly deep shape. It is precisely the kind of two-pronged approach that could catch out United's defenders (leading to transition-based attacks, as Brentford and Brighton managed) and slow down a quick Man Utd attack.
However, Hasenhuttl has been unusually unsettled in his tactical system this season, deploying three different formations across the three Premier League games - and not once using his usual 4-2-2-2. Getting back to basics on Saturday can kick-start their campaign and send Man Utd back into trouble.
Back double chance Saints/draw at 2.01/1
Bullies Brentford to clean up second balls
Brentford v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
Frank Lampard has permanently moved to a more defensive setup this season, learning from the success of the conservative approach at the end of last season to sit his team deeper and ease up on the pressing. But there is still a huge problem through central midfield, which opponents can easily cut through, and the deep line of engagement threatens to make Everton too passive to get into games.
Brentford are exactly the kind of opponents to sew chaos and bring out the worst in Lampard's team. Thomas Frank will send plenty of long balls up for Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo, who should be able to pull the three centre-backs out of position, but more importantly create loose balls in that porous Everton midfield in which Brentford's midfield three can take control.
Winning the second balls, Brentford's superior coaching and possession play should tear apart a worryingly frail midfield partnership of Amadou Onana (still adapting to the Premier League) and Alex Iwobi. A series of injuries means Lampard has no option but to use a two in the middle, allowing Brentford to seize the numerical advantage.
Back Brentford to win at 2.01/1
Walker to struggle against Zaha
Man City v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00
Crystal Palace have started the campaign very effectively. Patrick Vieira continues to coach the team to challenge aggressively in the middle third of the pitch and attack with great verticality, piercing forward with dribbles or direct passes into a fluid front three; Palace rank third for dribbles attempted (56), second for total pressures applied (492), and fourth for total distance their passes move towards the opponent's goal (7997m), behind only Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea.
This puts them in a very strong position to repeat their 2-0 victory in this fixture last season, in which Palace held 32% possession but never stopped pressing in central areas, denying Rodri space on the ball before pouncing quickly on the counter-attack. They are likely to be even more defensive this time to deal with the threat of Erling Haaland, but like Newcastle United they have the tools to cause issues down Manchester City's right.
The recalibration of Pep Guardiola's forward line has necessitated moving Kyle Walker into central midfield more often, and Newcastle exploited this by instructing Joelinton to put him under pressure aerially, freeing up the lethal Allan Saint-Maximin to get down that flank. Palace can do the same thing, using Odsonne Edouard and Zaha in combination to poke holes in Man City's high line. Without Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake, Man City may lack the recovery pace to cope with Zaha, Eberichi Eze, and Jordan Ayew.
Back double chance Palace/draw at 5.04/1
Silva's tactics will ruffle Arsenal
Arsenal v Fulham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
This is likely to be Arsenal's most difficult game of the season so far. Fulham were excellent in the 2-2 draw with Liverpool, pressing very hard in the first ten minutes to set the tempo and cause Liverpool's disjointed performance, before dropping into a neat 4-4-2 defined by the powerful and dominating midfield partnership of Joao Palhinha and Harrison Reed.
This is the same basic setup that will be used at the Emirates, and once Fulham have possession Palhinha and Reed will help release Marco Silva's aggressive full-backs on the overlap, who in turn will look for crosses as early as possible for Aleksandar Mitrovic. It is the sort of direct and aerial threat that could show up any remaining weaknesses in Mikel Arteta's team, especially down their right wing where Ben White has been starting at right-back.
White against Bobby De Cordova-Reid is an obvious mismatch, especially with Antonee Robinson overlapping, and should Fulham shuffle the ball out wide enough times they will create chances in the air for Mitrovic. However, Silva's tactics are invariably leaky at Premier League level and, as at Anfield, Fulham will ultimately let the game become too ragged to keep a clean sheet.
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.35/4