Elyounoussi v Digne the key battle
Southampton v Aston Villa
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Two out-of-form teams are unlikely to produce a high-quality game of football, although it helps that their tactical identities are contradictory. Ralph Hasenhuttl will be happy conceding possession and setting pressing traps to make use of transitional moments while Steven Gerrard will want Aston Villa to hold onto the ball for long periods as they try to break Southampton down.
That, alone, gives Saints the advantage, and their supporters will be optimistic about the battle down their right flank. According to Opta Southampton attack down the right 42% of the time, the most of any Premier League team, while Villa attack down the left 42% of the time, the second most in the division, suggesting how Mohamed Elyounoussi fairs up against Lucas Digne will be crucial.
Southampton have stabilised this season since Hasenhuttl moved from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1, with James Ward-Prowse generally roaming out to the right from the number ten position. His support to Elyounoussi is likely to prove too much for Villa, with Digne over-committing to attack and Gerrard's diamond 4-4-2 proving too narrow when Saints break forward.
Back Southampton to win at 3.711/4
Lage rethink may give Wolves a chance
Wolves v Man City
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
In this fixture last season Wolves were thrashed 5-1, which should be enough to ensure this time Bruno Lage drops his defensive line deeper and aims to soak up pressure in the way Wolves did in a narrow 1-0 win for Man City in the game before that. Wolves were too open, but as important was the way Bernardo Silva dropped from the false nine role to pull the back three apart, leaving a gap for Kevin de Bruyne to advance into - leading directly to the first two goals.
Wolves have now moved to a 4-3-3 and this is likely to remain in place on Saturday, which will produce a sturdier shape for a defensive shell, plus Erling Haaland's lurking presence at the top of the pitch will prevent the centre-backs from being pulled out of position - as well as prevent Man City from building with great purpose up against a deep defence. In other words, Pep Guardiola could be faced with the same issues that led to the 1-1 draw with Aston Villa.
That was always the potential concern with Haaland being in the team, and it is starting to become more pronounced. One of Guardiola's main ways to overcome City now having one less player in the middle of the park is to instruct both full-backs to move infield, but this can leave the wings open for counter-attacks like the ones we saw from Newcastle United. Pedro Neto and Adama Traore, the latter from the bench, could do real damage. Losing Kyle Walker's recovery pace only adds to the problem.
Back the draw at 5.59/2
Dake & Iheanacho should mean goals at both ends
Tottenham v Leicester
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
The Brendan Rodgers era is surely about to come to an end. Leicester City are playing without any sense of purpose and that drift means they are second to every loose ball and too late to react to things, which ought to allow a sharp and vertical Tottenham team to pierce straight through them. Certainly with Hueng-Min Son dropping intelligently between the lines in their last league outing, a 2-1 win over Fulham, Leicester's midfield will likely be over-run.
Worse than that, Leicester's central defence is a mess at the moment, with Wilfried Ndidi and Jonny Evans struggling in front of Danny Ward. They will be pulled around by Son and Harry Kane, likely leading to a fairly comfortable home victory. Nevertheless, there was one positive from Leicester's 5-2 defeat to Brighton in their last match that suggests we will have goals at both ends.
Rodgers will probably deploy a 3-5-2 in order to mirror Antonio Conte's system, with Patson Daka and Kelechi Iheanacho together up front. They combined well on the break on a couple of occasions and present an important shift away from Jamie Vardy. Consequently the game is likely to shift from end to end, with Spurs the eventual winners.
Back Spurs to win and BTTS at 2.89/5
Paqueta to capitalise on Everton opening up
Everton v West Ham
Sunday, 14:15
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Frank Lampard's Everton have become increasingly dull, playing out three consecutive draws, since he reverted to a more conservative setup in order to deal with his wide-open central midfield. However, this was only partly out of choice, and generally speaking Everton like to play a more expansive game - and do so poorly - when encouraged by the opposition.
West Ham United will certainly let Everton's defenders carry the ball out of defence and watch as the midfield expands out to support the forwards. A congested and unappealing match should ultimately be decided by that midfield battle as Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek look to feed new signing Lucas Paqueta into the gap between Everton's defence and midfield. He should find it as easy to dominate the ten space as Emiliano Buendia did for Aston Villa.
A good result against Liverpool in a 4-3-3 will have given Lampard false confidence. The more defensive West Ham is a completely different prospect, and once Everton get a footing in the game they will find themselves turned by the strong counter-attacking tactics of David Moyes.
Back West Ham to win at 2.4529/20