Nottingham Forest v West Ham Tips: Go low on goals

Early worring signs for Forest

Nottingham Forest got a stark reminder, as if they needed one, that this really is a step up from what they were facing in The Championship last season.

Against an organised Newcastle side, they had just 39% possession and endured 23 shots against them, of which 10 were on target.

In response, they managed just five shots, of which none of them were on target.

They also had to defend 11 corners and managed just one of their own so all in all, despite a spirited performance, they were completely outplayed.

Much this season may depend on how their more experienced players (at this level) perform.

The likes of Neco Williams, Dean Henderson and Jesse Lingard will have to lead by example and show that extra little bit of class. Make no mistake about it; staying up is not going to be an easy task for them.

Midfielder Ryan Yates is about 50/50 to be fit for this one.

Scamacca waits for his chance

West Ham lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City last week but then again, it's not a match that David Moyes would have pencilled down as one where he expected to take any points.

So, they've got one of their toughest matches of the season out of the way and can focus on games where they do expect to come away with something, such as this one.

It was a familiar-looking line-up that Moyes fielded there and that included Michail Antonio leading the line with new signing Gianluca Scamacca settling for a place on the bench and replacing Antonio, a former Forest man, on 57 minutes.

It's likely that Antonio will probably start this one as well until Scamacca gets up to speed with the West Ham system and a new league.

And it's very possible that Antonio may play in one of the wide attacking positions rather than alongside the Italian. But let's see.

Little of interest on the match winner market

It's 1.9520/21 West Ham, 3.7511/4 the draw and 4.47/2 on the hosts.

Given what we saw last week and that they're going to take time to find their feet, the odds on the home win look like a price to avoid.

Further proof of that, as Opta tell us, is that they're unbeaten there in eight top flight visits to the City Ground. You'd have to go back to 1986 for the last time Forest beat them and that was under Brian Clough.

And West Ham have a good record against promoted sides, winning 10 of their last 14 but somewhat spoiling what could have been an even better record by losing twice to Brentford last term.

But there's a good reason as to why that's not a great bet, either. The Hammers are currently on a poor run and have won just one of their last eight, securing solely two draws in that period. They're also on a two-match losing streak. They haven't lost three in a row since June 2020, also Opta.

So the draw price of 3.7511/4 is probably the pick of the three but nothing really stands out on this market.

'Unders' an eye-catching option

The over/under 2.5 goals market is pretty tight with 'overs' a slight favourite at 1.9520/21.

Last season 60% of Forest's home matches went over 2.5 goals, as did 52% of West Ham's away games so that probably explains why overs is the marginal jolly.

But you could probably argue that 'unders' is the value.

The hosts looked rather toothless in attack last week and might struggle to score here against a side who's generally pretty organised at the back, despite that poor recent record.

In a game full of uncertainties, it may just rate as the best option available.

So, the 2.021/1 on 'unders' isn't a bad bet.

Three-way Bet Builder

So, what conclusions have we come to so far ahead of a possible Bet Builder?

West Ham, despite being somewhat out of form, are highly likely to avoid defeat here. It's 1/7 on the Double Chance market that they do so.

Under 2.5 goals as mentioned (20/23) is the way for Hammers to do so, mostly out of a belief that West Ham aren't a particularly high-scoring side themselves and that Forest may struggle to score at all.

And if we wanted to add a third leg to this, we can add over 4.5 corners for West Ham (9/20), that gets you to odds of 3.09 and could be a good option.